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To: Alski who wrote (2048)8/23/1998 10:30:00 PM
From: Thean  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14427
 
TA on BMC - First off I have no clue what their business is. But its charts sure looks like a business in serious decline in fundamentals. A few points of interest:

1. It has been surfing the lower BB lower for more than a month. It must have a reason as compelling as the declining fundamentals of the drillers.

2. It has high volumes last Thursday and Friday. Seem to say to me there are plenty of churning happening the last two days at the $5 level.

3. Don't know about the short situation with this stock but I'm willing to bet the shorts mo-mo have been riding this down with no fear. Now that the stock has reached $5, it may encounter some buying/covering pressure as brokers (maybe have exceptions) don't allow shorting below $5.

4. If it breaks below $5, we are talking about a sentiment so negative that people are throwing down the tower and decide to take it as a tax loss selling. In this case, I don't see the selling will subside.

5. You mentioned about filling the gap. That will involve a titanic effort and the best bet for that to happen is in a buyout scenario. If the bussiness fundies are truly bad, why would mo-mo's want to trade this thing up 150% in order to fill the gap? One can play the bounce here at $5 (I say 50:50) but it is unrealistic expectation for the stock to fill the gap unless the fundies drastically change for the better.