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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul V. who wrote (23224)	8/23/1998 10:42:00 PM
From: John L.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Paul, I think Big Bucks nailed it, the % gain will be higher as your entry point drops. The risk is you miss the uptick, so far they have been false and there is nothing in sight to justify a move up. The markets are not rational so this logic may not pay off, but I will wait for the low 20's until there is a real indication things are turning around. Investors are jumpy and we could see a quick move in AMAT either way when the layoff is announced this week. The trend is our friend and it is decidedly down for the time being. I hope in 12 months we can look back and be happy with our choices, being invested in AMAT will pay off, the only ? is how much and when.

To: Paul V. who wrote (23224)	8/23/1998 10:59:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Paul, I'm not really too sure about the 12-18 month timeframe being a viable reality. It could be considerably longer based on current world-wide economic events/problems. From inception to completion it takes 12-18 months to build a new fab. I only know of 1 fab that is under construction, the AMD plant in Dresden, Germany. That fab was planned before the current downturn hit and it is being subsidized by the German gov't, if I recall correctly. Other than that, I think that since some fabs are starting to be closed down that it is unlikely that any new fabs will be built to house 200mm product wafer production. That being the case, I would argue that the next round of 300mm fabs won't be started until 0.15uM (and smaller) device geometries and an entire 300mm equipment set are available to manufacture at this level. That is probably 24-36 months in the future, at the earliest. If my logic is correct then the next generation of 300mm fab building will start in late 2001. In the mean time, productivity enhancements and new technology equipment advances like copper, dual damascene, cmp, high density etching and low K dielectrics, deep UV lithography at 200mm will continue to be the bread and butter of the industry for a while. This means sporatic sales in various fabs to upgrade existing equipment or to replace "outdated" equipment as productivity enhancements are required to maintain chip technology leadership. I estimate that the available "market" for this upgrade technology will be somewhere around 30-40% of the 1997 market, for the next 2+ years. Just my opinion, BB