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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul V. who wrote (23228)	8/23/1998 11:34:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Paul, You asked "How do you see the above outlook translating in BTB numbers, and then price targets over the next 12 and 18 months? " I am sticking my neck way out here, so Brian take it easy!!! Well, if the available market is only 30-40% of '97's total sales for the industry and if AMAT is able to secure 30% of that available market then it is reasonable to expect $400M-600M a quarter or somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.6B-$2.4B in sales a year. I don't have the total market sales numbers from '97 to compute the actual estimations, maybe someone with the info can assist here? The implication is that potentially AMAT could sell about 1/2 of what it sold in '97, which was somewhere around $4.1B if I recall correctly. If that is the case, what is the relative value of the stock, based on earnings? I think you see the undertones of my arguments concerning current stock price. The world economic situation is just too dynamic and negatively biased to project any positive spin on industry/stock movements until there is a clear view of the developing situation. I could see 0.55-0.60 as a realistic industry B2B, given the current circumstances. Just my opinion, This ought to generate some "lively" and impassioned arguments!!8^) BB