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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gerald F Bunch who wrote (28216)	8/24/1998 7:06:00 AM
From: Satch77	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Gerald, I hope they are right about 12 to 18 months before a turnaround. My question is how long before a turnaround does the smart money get in? If we are only 12 months away from a true turn around, and there was no doubt about it, I would load up on this sector. I consider that really good news. Satch

To: Gerald F Bunch who wrote (28216)	8/24/1998 8:27:00 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 95453

" IMHO, I don't think that the drillers and service company's will be going much lower, but I think it will be a little longer for a strong turnaround than most people expect, short of a strong military engagement. " My sentiment as well. Patience will be required to reap the big rewards.

To: Gerald F Bunch who wrote (28216)	8/24/1998 9:59:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

Gerald - thanks for another ''great'' buying indicator ! I learned many $profitable trades ago in Bank/Financial sector that just about when the 'frontline'' bank teller or branch manager thought the Bank/Financial business, or their individual company was in dire straights and the future looked bleakest -- that was THE time to buy ! Rarely; do the ''field worker/frontline'' employees have privy, timely or even accurate info as to the inside financial's. Quite the contrary, it is often in a companies best interest to paint a slightly worse than reality picture... it often holds wages in line & has a way of picking up productivity. Changes in earnings, dayrate softness, contract negotiations, planned newbuilds, M&A strategies, Capital credit lines, and all the other pertinent info that is germain to valuing these companies today or tomorrow - is usually found in quite a different ''loop'' than the one these folks find themselves in... Quite frankly, the timliness of their realizations of acts planned long before their effects were felt by them; totally negates 95% of the value in their info - old news is valueless news... Now; if your sons were controllers for GLM and casually mentioned ... or you post info on a new E&P find or failure... - that would be another story! No offense, but when a field employee talks about how slow business is, about how many rigs are stacked, about the lay offs... we all ready knew that. The coming OPEC production cut numbers, supply/storage levels, Clinton-Lewinsky fallout, Middle East Political/Military ramifications, Asian demand/recovery, Russian political/financial stability, Chinese devaluation/Yen stabilization-intervention - now these are THE factors that will drive this sector - if your sons know Monica, Yeltsin or have the inside skinny on the Geo-political situation or currency futures - please let us know !

To: Gerald F Bunch who wrote (28216)	8/24/1998 11:42:00 AM
From: Mike from La.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

GB, When you say that these stocks will recover, do you mean start to go back up, or do you mean return to their pre-1998 levels. If you mean the latter, then their projections are not out of line with what the optimistic writers are saying. To return to the pre-'98 levels means a doubling or tripling from their present levels. I checked the want ads in New Orleans yesterday, and it's full of ads for offshore workers. I've also heard FGII advertising for workers on the radio in Biloxi. Recently the shipyards got permission from the government to hire foreign workers for a year because there is such an extreme shortage here. These companies do not seem to be pulling back. Mike from La.