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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Worswick who wrote (5820)	8/24/1998 11:36:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

Worswick, read the CRB index and you will see "deflation" written all over it, it just breached 200. Zeev

To: Worswick who wrote (5820)	8/24/1998 7:20:00 PM
From: Logos	Respond to of 9980

I seriously doubt that we will have any drop so drastic in the US stock markets. My reason is this: Yes Japan, Hong Kong, et al, did suffer tremendous drops in their stock markets. But these stock markets had gone to levels that were beyond ludicrous. At its height, the PE ratio on the Nikkei was around 80. Right now, even at our high levels in the US, PE ratios on the S&P are only in the 20's. That's pretty high historically, but not rediculous. Especially since US companies are actually earning some profits and are at little risk of going belly up. So while I do believe the US stock markets will drop in the coming months, I think talking about more than a 5 to 10% further drop from here is unrealistic. Logos

To: Worswick who wrote (5820)	8/25/1998 8:03:00 AM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 9980

"Again, Sam? Tommasso? Stitch? Zeev any deflation raeding material?" Not for what's happening right now; I had never thought deflation could be possible with fiat money, but apparently the major economic powers have managed the money supply so well that at least for the time being it's as good as gold. As Milton Friedman says, though, deflation is the easiest thing in the world to cure. You just print more money. Friedman may have neglected to anticipate the question, "But what if people refuse to spend it?" which is what happened in the Depression. I am trying to figure some of these things out. For example, the price of oil means that oil-producing countries have much less money to spend on goods from oil-consuming countries. This should mean a glut of certain kinds of goods, a contraction in manufacturing and spending on the machinery to produce the goods, less purchasing power for those countries, and then less demand for oil, and lower oil prices. Asia and Russia in opposite ways already show these extremes. Whether the United States remains sufficiently self-sufficient (except for oil) to rise above this remains to be seen. We are still enjoying the benefit of cheap energy without the penalties. I once knew a physicist who called economics "a firm grasp of the obvious." That's not easy to attain.

To: Worswick who wrote (5820)	9/1/1998 1:10:00 AM
From: Ontopequity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Does anyone here have any good information on buying consumer goods in depressed Asian countries and exporting them to Canada, USA, or Britain. I have heard you can great buys on used classic Mercedes for example.If you have any information with respect to this, please share it on line or in private. I intend to raise some private financing to take advantage of these opportunities. I have a friend in London who has been accepted into Oxford University Law and is keen to help off load goods in Britain. I have a connection in Western Canada with the owner of a few Mercedes Dealerships. I intend to make contact in the USA. Of course it is less expensive if you purchase and ship in volume so naturally I would be interested to here from you if you are also keen on the idea.