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To: Lucretius who wrote (2064)	8/24/1998 3:07:00 PM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 14427

speaking of "don't have a clue": .8/22/98 Capital Growth Letter By John Bollinger Capital Growth Topics #239: Confidence A portfolio strategist I know once asserted that portfolio managers only act in the face of certainty. The obvious extensions of this idea are that when portfolio managers are certain stocks are going higher they'll load the boat, and when they are certain stocks are going lower they'll lighten that load. Obviously this is a major factor in the theory of contrary opinion, but there is another aspect of portfolio-manager certainty that is rarely, if ever, discussed--uncertainty. When portfolio managers are uncertain they do not act, they think, they read, they talk, they ask questions and they seek opinion. They do everything in their power to move towards certainty, but they do not act. In essence they are transfixed by uncertainty--unable to buy, unable to sell. As they move towards certainty in the outcome, they regain confidence and again take up action. It is in this mode that we now find portfolio managers. Asia lies to one side, deflation lurks in a corner, inflation seems to be walking down the hall, Russian capitulation seems imminent, stocks are overvalued, interest rates are low, the markets are volatile and funds just keep coming in. How to put it all together? It just doesn't fit! Indecision. Lack of confidence in the outcome. It all spells: U N C E R T A I N T Y ! And leads to: I N A C T I O N ! Which in turn spells: O P P O R T U N N I T Y ! for the bold. Be decisive. John Bollinger, CFA, CMT