To: Tweaker who wrote (60552 ) 8/27/1998 9:28:00 AM From: Mohan Marette Respond to of 176387
Crisis Schmisis,seems like everybody has an opinion,have you any??? 'morning Phil: Let's listen in what the 'experts' say, shall we? ======================================================What's Next For Wall Street ? PAUL KANGAS: Asia's problems and the world's other financial hot spots are the talk of Wall Street these days. It seems that everybody has an opinion on what will happen next. And no two opinions are the same. Scott Gurvey canvassed some of Wall Street's opinion makers. SCOTT GURVEY, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, CORRESPONDENT: There has been a sea change on world markets which has replaced exuberance with a bad case of the jitters. The nervousness results from concerns about turmoil in Asia, South America and Russia. But ask economists how bad the effects of those problems will be on the world and the American economy, and you get a wide variety of answers. Bill Dudley of Goldman Sachs says the problems in South America have increased the risks. David Blitzer of Standard & Poor's says currency problems in South America and Canada will have an impact. But not the huge one some are predicting. But Bob Brusca of Nikko Securities thinks predictions of huge problems, may be right. ROBERT BRUSCA, CHIEF ECONOMIST, NIKKO SECURITIES: If this isn't a crisis, this is about as close as you come without having one. We have an awful lot of countries that are in very difficult shape. We've had the IMF with its resources pressed to the maximum possible. We still don't have clear turnaround in any country. GURVEY: The South American problems are seen as cyclic. Caused by lower commodity prices. Particularly oil. That's different from the troubles in Asia, especially in Japan, where the problems are seen as structural. Elliot Platt of DLJ believes South America's problems will be contained and Japan will be back next year. But Matt Alexy of Credit Suisse says lower commodity prices hurt all emerging markets, especially South America and Russia. And Stan Shipley of Merrill Lynch sees the world economy facing a crisis. But the United States, only slower growth. John Williams of Banker's Trust thinks talk of an economic collapse in the United States is ridiculous. Mohan: Now this John Williams guy I like,he makes sense doesn't he?Well naturally.<g>JOHN WILLIAMS, CHIEF ECONOMIST, BANKER'S TRUST: There is a growing notion that the world is coming unglued a bit. And that there is likely to be, in fact, a global recession. The notion of recession in the United States is downright silly. The U.S. consumer, which is 70 percent of the U.S. economy, is powering the economy forward. And it has done so for several years and will likely continue to do so in the future. GURVEY: We'll get an update on what the U.S. consumer has been up to with a report tomorrow on durable goods. Scott Gurvey, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, New York. [source:NBR 8/25/98]