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Technology Stocks : TLAB info? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pass pass who wrote (3273)	8/24/1998 4:08:00 PM
From: still learning	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7342

T may be going down hill but I don't know if I'd call LU a sinking titanic. CIEN's big problem is they have few customers (11 total, but really about 3), and those 3 care extracting price concessions because they know CIEN's not in a great postion. They need a partner, and soon, so they have the negotiating strength to drive a better bargain. More impt'tly, they need entree into other similar organizations thru a bigger/better sales force. All of this could be accomplished thru strategic partnering and/or getting acquired by someone else. But the fact is they're already in a deal with TLAB and the weight of momentum (from both sides) is to finish it. Both TLAB and CIEN have been hurt by the past few days' events. CIEN more than TLAB. But -- similar to politics (as you said in your post) you need to put bad news behind you and start the process of geting beyond it. That's the incentive for CIEN to accept less. How much less is anyone's guess. My guess is .6 to 1.0. Ibexx thinks it's worth .06, but that may well bracket the low-end of the highly knowledgeable estimates. I've heard as high as .85 thrown around on SI, obviously it wouldn't be much higher, or why bother renegotiating to begin with. I think politically* for TLAB it has t o be less than that. I wouldn't be surprised at .7, and I'd be shocked at anything much below .6