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Gold/Mining/Energy : Trico Marine Services (TMAR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JZGalt who wrote (716)	8/24/1998 5:55:00 PM
From: D.J.Smyth	Respond to of 1153

rig count is down in both. most exploration was occuring in the deep water though. the deep water commands higher rates. TMAR gets "more than their share" of the deep water contracts according to them as their supply boats have fewer breakdowns per longer haul ("newer", double hulled, larger boats). the majority of rig drop off has come in the shallow water. this makes sense since more rigs are located there. percentage of shallow versus deep water shutdown doesn't have much meaning at this time. offshore-data.com

To: JZGalt who wrote (716)	8/24/1998 6:33:00 PM
From: D.J.Smyth	Respond to of 1153

according to TDW there are approximately 300 supply boats total in the gulf servicing, right now, about 110 total off shore rigs (difference bw 129 and 110 would be "inland water" rigs which are not necessarily serviced by the larger supply boats). TDW has 45% of the gulf market, other competitors the remainder. You generally figure two boats per rig, or 220 boats needed to service 110 rigs. There are other boats used for cable laying, custruction and oil and gas development which are not included in the two boats per rig count. Total utilization of supply boats in the gulf remains at 75% if you count all boats per rigs. Not counting boats on drydock, utilization goes over 85%. most of the new boats scheduled for release to the gulf have been mothballed and/or are looking for other contracts elsewhere. those remaining already have conracts. rig count in the gulf is running at a bear covering. further significant (10% or more) drops are very unlikely according to the newletters.

To: JZGalt who wrote (716)	8/24/1998 7:34:00 PM
From: D.J.Smyth	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1153

it's odd that Jefferies, in their 'official' downgrade of TMAR in July stated that TMAR had "significant upside potential earnings of $5.10". however, i've run their numbers twice now and they (a) do not jive with TMAR's past earnings ratios at day rates of $6500 (which they said was their assumption for the 3rd quarter) (b) do not jive with other boats earnings ratios relative their day rates and earnings ratios, (c) nor did their own supporting data jive with current cost ratios overall. they are using significantly increased cost data than would otherwise be used. they do give some interesting predictions regarding jack up rigs in the gulf and day rates for the rigs. otherwise it's a bogus report if TMAR reports $.45 or better for the upcoming quarter. if its a bogus report for the 3rd quarter, their whole analysis is bogus for 1999 and they were engaged in nothing more than short trading the stock. one aspect of their report is already wrong. in it they stated that 45 new boats would be entering the gulf prior to the end of 1998. this is already bogus. these boat entry plans were dependent on day rates staying above $8000 a day. at most 15 new boats may enter, if that, and these boats are predominantly designed for current contracts for specific work (cable laying, exploration, etc.) with guaranteed day rates prior to build