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Technology Stocks : DELL Bear Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lin luo who wrote (1648)	8/25/1998 8:05:00 AM
From: Moominoid	Respond to of 2578

The method worksbest with large capitalization liquid stocks. It is much poorer with small caps. They are just too volatile often in the US or in Australia they jump discontinuously and are stagnant for long periods. Some of the best have been things like Chase Manhattan. Yes you can see the minima/maxima after they have occurred eg with moving averages TA, the trick is to see them on the day they happen with only past data. The problem with stocks like DELL is it is quite difficult to tell apart the initiation of a strong new trend from a shallow - I'm working on that. Yes I admit that it is only a decision aid and it will cause you to make some errors. I just reckon that the times that it is right are enough to beat buy and hold or other TA methods. When I have time I'll do some work fitting a proper time series model to stock-price series. The approach I favor is known as Structural Time Series Modeling which decomposes the series into a stochastic trend and noise (not white noise) components. The methods I am using now are just based on simple autoregressions.