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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (31487)	8/26/1998 10:56:00 AM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

To all, Interesting morning for putski fans. 1. Amat has announced that they will report a loss this quarter, which I predicted. I am proud of that, as the few analysts I respect had predicted that they would not lose money until the end of the year. The one-time writeoff bit scares me a mite, as brain dead bulls usually get fooled by companies that throw inventory and future costs into the writeoff to pad the next quarter's results. However, despite an extremely touty CEO, AMAT has been fairly honest in its accounting in the past, so I think my puts have further to go. 2. Chase Bank seems to be angry that the XAL and Ciena are my biggest put winners so far this year. CMB has not fallen nearly as much as these two bowwows, but it has been a gift that keeps on giving. It rises; I load up; it falls. Then it rises again and falls again, with me betting against it. This is how Picturetel became the all-time champion of my 90/10 portfolio, and how MU would have been if I had believed it could possibly bounce from $17 to $60 while business was getting worse. <G> On MU, I got fully loaded too soon during the Kurlak fantasy island tour, and suffered a few bad expirations that cut total return. I was also caught with just a third at the intermediate top near $60. That has not happened with CMB (and never happened with PCTL). I guess these stocks must have fewer or weaker manipulators or I have less emotion invested. Or, I know less about them. <G> 3. Speaking of MU, it looks kind of puny here. Has the DRAM scam run out of steam? I still think the propaganda machine does not fall apart until mid-Sept, but I could be wrong about the timing. Could the analysts and the great unwashed be growing more sophisticated? Nah! You just can't bet that way. <G> So, I am sticking with a third position. However, my caution may have more to do with point #2 above than with hard-core research and valuation. This stock can make a brave man cry at times, so it has no trouble at all bringing tears to my eyes. I have seen a 2700% profit fall to 1700% and finally rebuild itself to 2300%. That is a lot of roller coaster for a cowardly lion. <G> 4. The sleazeball Linears, Xylinxs and Maxims of the world are finally showing a bit of weakness. But these have been tough motor scooters and bad go-getters for put players. I have made profits, but nothing to write home about. 5. Merrill Lynch has been a quiet winner. Citicorp has been a large winner, though I still have third under water. What a mover and shaker. Good Luck, MB