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Technology Stocks : DELL Bear Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (1659)	8/25/1998 9:13:00 AM
From: divvie	Respond to of 2578

>> Computers are getting easier and easier to use, and this trend will undeniably continue. Easier to use means that they come with what you need and don't require hardware modifications (like adding cards.)<< This is off the point but I'd like to start on a different tack: In terms of hardware, PCs may be getting easier to use, but unless the OS becomes simpler then the PC will never penetrate more than 50% of the US market and 30% of the European market. There was once a sealed $300 16bit (and later 32 bit) computer with a fully multi-tasking operating system and multi-media called the Amiga. It was easier to use than Windows today as it was so simple. Yet it did all that a $300 home computer user really needs. $300 is really the point at which the masses will buy - ask Trip Hawkins. $300 PC manufacturers will not succeed as long as they have Windows. The MacOS is better but what we really need is something that my mother can use such as a TV or WebTV or a set top box. Even programming a VCR is beyond a lot of people! The consumer market for set top boxes is where the future is, but the business market still needs configurable PCs, but even more than that, powerful servers even if they go for thin client fat server. DELL will survive in that scenario, albeit with less than 63% earnings growth, and leave the set top market to Sony et al.

To: Bilow who wrote (1659)	8/25/1998 11:09:00 AM
From: rudedog	Respond to of 2578

Carl - Good analysis. Think VCR or microwave oven. Buy it, put it on the shelf, replace it if it breaks or you want new features. when communication among home components is as simple as plugging in the power cord (easy technology today), there will be little reason to have a configurable machine for general purpose computing. how many people use the fancy features on their VCR, or even their TV? Most people use only the simplest features on microwaves. I don't know exactly how it will go in the future, but it is possible to have all of the comm needs (both LAN and external net) as well as storage and video occur on a common backbone that people already have (like their power connections) at ethernet speeds. The 'computer' could be a brick that gets plugged in somewhere in the back room next to the furnace. A flat panel display with pointer or keyboard would attach simply by being plugged in. likewise scanners, cameras, printers, etc. there is no loss in individual computing capability in this scenario - you get access wherever you are in your home to whatever you need with a device that is a lot more powerful than today's laptops, while being much lighter, more rugged, and cheaper. How well would Dell do in a world like that? Maybe just fine, but it would be a different company than the one we see today.