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To: mauser96 who wrote (288)	9/22/1998 10:45:00 PM
From: Bill Fischofer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 387

Re: Yamada Yamada's book is very technical and often difficult to follow. A much more readable treatment of much of the same material (based on demographics) is Harry Dent's The Roaring 2000s. Dent's theory is that demographics is the most important macroeconomic factor that drives long-term market cycles and the book makes a convincing argument that the baby boomers will drive the economy (and hence the stock market) inexorably higher for another decade (his Dow target is 35,000). He also shows how Japan is "out of phase" with the US (demographically speaking) having seen its demographic (and market) peak in 1989 and this is why they've been in the doldrums for nearly a decade. The net of the book: Stick with US markets until around 2009 then switch to Japan. After 2009 demographic forces will be working against US markets but will be once again driving Japan forward. Impressively, the book (which was published in early 1998) called for a "sharp correction" later in the year but warns to be fully invested by late 1998 for the next leg up.