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Non-Tech : Havana Republic (HVAR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jonathan Lebed who wrote (191)	8/25/1998 11:15:00 AM
From: AJ Berger	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 686

Cigar's broader appear has peaked? Just wondering what you think of the Macro Economic fads of cigars. Cigars become a fad during "good times" as we've enjoyed the past few years in Europe and North America. However, this fad is often offset by a growing health conscious population. I will not dispute the DD you have done, and the earnings potential of this company. But consider that the stock price erosion may have more to do with the eroding fad of cigar smoking, then anything having to do with HVAR. Now, it could be argued the Golf has enjoyed rising popularity, and could be a fad as well. I do believe however, that Golf is only suffering temporarially from the SEA economic crisis. It's potential is far greater as the population ages and lives longer and better from better medical care, and needs a excersise diversion. Not to mention the growth of Golf as a spectator sport. Also consider that cigar's are becoming more mainstream and cheaper ones are getting better. As cigerette taxes keep raising the price, cigars are becoming closer in cost as a nicotine/taste alternative for many consumers. My neighborhood newstand just put in a large humidor showcase with dozens of brands featured selling to the same joe six packs who wait online to buy lottery tickets. I don't believe that cigars will command the higher margins and mystic that profit margins must maintain. Could the current fall off HVAR's popularity also have more to do with softening relations with Cuba, and the growing possibility the economic sanctions could be lifted, then flooding our markets with lot's of cheap high quality Cuban cigars? Also, economies in South America are under pressure, and their Cigar exports may grow cheaper to raise foreign currency. All I'm saying is that the stock is trying to tell you all something by the way it has dropped, and does not seem to move much despite recent press releases. It's trying to say that this stock ideas appeal may have come and gone, leaving you holding the bag no matter how long term you profess to be. Good luck with this investment. I truely hope it meets your expectations, and when those earnings come in, maybe I'll be back to buy in at a higher price.