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Technology Stocks : IFMX - Investment Discussion -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: view who wrote (11734)	8/25/1998 12:44:00 PM
From: Sonny	Respond to of 14631

My view about the Opp'r strategy is: you hold now, let us buy in first, dirt cheap at these incredible clearance prices, for our best clients; once we are satiated, we may send someone to WSW to say good things about it, stock will get some initial boost, then next week on Monday after that, we'll upgrade it to Buy and the earnings will again be good, surprising on the positive side at least by 50% in the next quarter, so we'll upgrade it again to Strong-buy then, and later, when its at 13-15, we'll start reducing our best clients' exposure first gradually and eventually, a day will come, when we'll downgrade it a notch to Buy from Strong buy ... and so on. And The cycle will continue. All hands meshed-in properly in the big boys' network. You see! :-) Implications in general about Opp'grades: Hold => can't go lower than this; and Strong Buy => wait for a day or two, and dump big time, as it can't go higher than that, after that, as we'll start getting our best clients out now, at the best prices, thanks to you! :-) cheers, -/Sonny.

To: view who wrote (11734)	8/25/1998 1:29:00 PM
From: Dave Wulkan	Respond to of 14631

View, I really don't know anything about Oppenhiemers analysts or their track record but I think Sonny's assesment is correct. Informix has all the makings of a great turnaround situation, great product, technical accolades, return to profitability, new leadership with intense focus. Whats going on now is the slow accumulation at bargain basement prices. This will make for overhead resistence when these 'accumulators' see a decent profit and decide to realize their gain. >>> Read messages 11696 (?) and 11698 <<<< Maybe the Oppenhiemer analyst that rated Informix a buy on Aug 14th let the cat out of the bag too early? dave

To: view who wrote (11734)	8/25/1998 4:24:00 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Respond to of 14631

Im not sure... would this be Melissa Eisenstadt? If thats who it is, ignore the recommendation - many dont know that Melissa is from the bay area and has worked in some of the companies around here. Im not sure about ifmx stock right now, Im just commenting on the credibility of the analyst (if thats who it is) MH

To: view who wrote (11734)	8/26/1998 3:29:00 PM
From: Techperson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14631

I just spoke to Bob Finocchio. In contrast to the Oppenheimer analyst's information, the company is not aware of ANY Informix data warehousing customer that has moved to Oracle. Not one. I think she is confused about the Egghead situation, which is widely known. Egghead was an Illustra customer that wanted to move to Universal Server. Egghead's 3rd party consultant could not get the job done in time, and the ORCL salesman snagged the account. This was not a data warehousing application. In terms of new wins, IFMX competes with ORCL for every new account, including data warehousing. They win some and lose some. IMHO, they win a larger share than their current % of the business; e.g., they continue to gain market share. Ms. Eisenstadt's (unchanged) estimate for the September Q is 5› and for December Q is 7›. The company beat her June estimate by 100%. Street estimates are 6› and 9›. My estimates are 9› and 13›. Note that she did not change her 1998 or 1999 estimates, she simply decided the stock should sell for 1.0x to 1.5x revenues instead of 2.5x revenues (which is half of the normal 5.0x revenue multiple for an enterprise software company). IMHO the company will continue to put good quarterly numbers on the table. When people decide to pay a fair (2.5x) or normal (5.0x) revenue multiple for the business is up to them.