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Strategies & Market Trends : CHARTS AND TA, A UNIQUE APPROACH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: flickerful who wrote (1367)	8/26/1998 9:37:00 PM
From: stan s.	Respond to of 1391

Hi flickerful, Since the major averges are loosely connected I'm going to show a NASDAQ chart first. DAILY CHART. It's actually a little further along than the OEX and the DJ30. By that I mean it's doing crummier....evolved more towards support. It is already oversold on a number of indicators. The problem with the NAZ is that it has yet to show the needed strength to begin to pull out of oversold on the WEEKLY chart....the other exchanges have shown that strength....they can only go so far....the question becomes (overly simplified of course) will the NAZ follow them up or lead them down. More on that on the next set of charts. That question has nothing to do with the merits of the exchanges...but rather which will be a leading and which will be a lagging indicator. You can see how close it is to trendline support, straight line support and it's 200 day moving average. The area of support (closing basis) is 1725 to 1750. geocities.com A very important area....notice it's only transgressed the 200 day MA once in the last year and a half....January of '98. But also notice the extremely robust recovery from that point. Okay more charts later and my opinion....I need a drink. Uh, obviously I mean a smoothie or somethin'...right? Later Stan

To: flickerful who wrote (1367)	8/26/1998 11:46:00 PM
From: stan s.	Respond to of 1391

Okay the !OEX.............DAILY CHART............... geocities.com For the time being it's reverted back to flat channel it was in before pre-June, July. 522-545. You can see that most of these short term moves, 15-20 points, were forecast by the indicators signaling buys as the pulled up over their respective trigger lines.....and sell as they passed below. These are momentum indicators. The last grouping of indicators to give a signal were sells 4 or 5 trading periods ago. That's not a big deal.. Very routine stuff. The chart gives no strong indication that it won't hold support around 523 on a closing basis...as it drops. Something to watch carefully though. The fact that it's dipping below it's 200 day MA on occasion is worthy of note but not cause for panic. The MACD still looks pretty good. So far things are going according to plan.....a bump early this week as a continuance of Fridays rally....some weakness right now, it appears that it will continue a little longer. The best scenario would be a little more weakness....drop it into oversold but hold it at support and then start to move up. It would then then play RIGHT into an ever strengthening weekly chart..... indicating another leg up. That chart to come. These charts tend to promote that scenario..........if these indices are not held up too long by the NAZ. By the way there's no reason it can't move up from this point....it's just the chart indicates that a little more weakness seems likely. Okay the weekly chart. Remember this data is compressed. Each Candle is a week of data...except the last week is still forming. The MO indicators periods are weekly rather than daily as well. A 10 day CCI becomes a 10 week etc. geocities.com IF THIS IS A TURNAROUND, it is in it's earliest stages. You can see the buy signals have been generated in the middle box....note the massing of indicators in the top box turning up. Remember some other more conservative indicators have NOT yet turned up on this chart. This is NOT inexorable but for this early stage it looks good. I can't advise on domestic and world turmoil....a lot of that is reflected in the charts already...as well as anticipation....major events will affect it however. If the NAZ can't show some strength...the recovery of the other exchanges will be limited or even dragged down. Stan

To: flickerful who wrote (1367)	8/27/1998 9:45:00 PM
From: stan s.	Respond to of 1391

Hi flickerful...pretty quick trip to support! 3 quick indices charts. Leaving in the morning, back Monday night or Tuesday. All these are daily charts. DOW's resting on a support line, nicely oversold, appears to be waiting. Stochastics could drop a bit more. (blue line, upper box) This has been about a 13% drop from mid July. geocities.com Here's the !OEX. This one broke support the last few minutes of panic but not by much. Given the nature of today's decline I wouldn't be overly concerned unless it fails to recover tomorrow. Failure and it could see 505. geocities.com When I say broke support, I'm referring to closing support. Like the DOW it's well oversold now except for the 5,3,3 stochastics. This is generally where significant rallies emanate....it's a question of when. Okay the NASDAQ...once again this is probably the key. Broke several areas of support today. geocities.com Could be headed to 1650....if it is, it will further delay the rally. Again, these areas of oversold are where the good rallies usually start, the indices have dropped in the neighborhood of 13-18% some of the smaller indices even more. Generally these are where corrections end. The weekly charts are ready for a rally......we'll see. Stan