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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Gameboy who wrote (28315)8/25/1998 5:37:00 PM
From: Chas  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 95453
 
Re: Minerals Management Service Gulf Lease Sale

It will be interesting to see what happens with the Gulf lease sale. The strong results last year really spiked the OS stocks. Mavis said expectations were not too high for this one, However, oil companies must replenish/find new reserves. You would think this activity would need to occur somewhat independently of short term crude prices.

I don't think we need a record sale here, but it would help if the sale comes in moderately strong. Could prove that the oil drillers/service cos will have future work after all. If it is very weak, I expect to see another 5/10% fall (or worse). I don't have a clue which way it will go. It is disappointing to see the hits some of the stocks took to day in spite of the steady/moderately up crude prices.

This has really been something, and I have learned some painful lessons.

Good luck, Chas



To: Gameboy who wrote (28315)8/25/1998 5:45:00 PM
From: Platter  Respond to of 95453
 
Of all my years of trading..these stocks are the MOST oversold I have seen on Book value basis....you can close down these companies, sell everything in fire sale and still give each shareholder a higher price the market today.....One positive is that oil prices have not only stabilized over the last 3-4 days but are gradually inching back up to 14.00...if we cross it ...these stock will take off.....We reached 13.85 on the NY contract...If we break 13.89, look for correct to move to 14.00 from thereon...... The OSX index held up well for most of the day , but as the banks and other sectors sold off late in the day on the Russian announcement of Debt restructuring...so too the Internet,(e.g. LCOS was at 79.87 and closed at 74.25), Techs,(e.g. LU was at 89.44 and closed at 87), Health care( e.g. PFE was at 108.63, closed at 106.50...AND SO THE OIL SERVICE STOCK, (e.g. SLB was at 55.44 up 5/8 and closed 54.37 and SII was at 23.37 up 1/2, closed at 22.37).....So ALL sectors pulled back late in the day... Also remember, the sector was riding a wave a negative comments in the morning and was still holding up........I guess due in part to oil prices......So there are positives today if you look if you look......This sector will only recover "FULL steam ahead" when oil crosses 14.00....I am optimistic that it will within the next couple of weeks as we approach Fall and Traders return from Vacation....studies have shown that as traders return, they usually do the opposite of what has happened in the market over the summer...e.g. if the market was overbought..they dump stocks on there return....If it is OVERSOLD, they pickup the bargains.....This is the last week of Summer vacation...so we shall see what they do from Monday....