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Technology Stocks : Brightpoint - CELL -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Shread who wrote (855)	8/25/1998 8:38:00 PM
From: mauser96	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1999

Paul..I really thought the announcement of an official recession would stir the Japanese to action, but alas the institutional forces against any real change are still in control. I took a position in the Japanese market via EWJ, but sold it quickly at a tiny profit when it became clear that it was business as usual. The Japanese are a real threat to our market, far more than fly speck markets like Russia and Hong Kong. It seems like the January effect gets earlier each year, because everybody is trying to anticipate it. BTW, usually most of the January effect is in small caps. Of course we could get a good rally anytime before then, but my guess is that it will be a mainly big cap affair. Who knows. After nearly 3 decades of following the market I've never been able to reliably predict general market behavior, with one exception. That exception is the blast off of a new bull after a prolonged bear, and even then it's not really a prediction but a recognition of when it's happening. So far in last few years of this super bull 10% corrections have led to a re-ignition of the bull. The longer this correction hangs around the 10% level, the more likely it is to get worse. This is the most big cap fixated market in many years, and as you say, it's been bad for most small caps. However, why should this fixation change anytime soon? I don't think that there is much chance that the super secular bull is over, but that still allows for -20% to -30% cyclical bears. All in all, I'm more bullish than bearish over the next few months, but I have accumulated cash for buying opportunities. I do feel fairly sure that loser small cap stocks will not do much until tax selling is over. People can sell now, take a loss and buy it back again in 30 days. Good earnings won't help in the case of CELL unless they are way over estimates. The estimates are widely known and built into the price. I don't think markets are rational a lot of the time, and in any case reality isn't important. What is important is the perception of reality. I'll keep following CELL closely and watch for a chance to get back in. Like you say, it's a bargain, that is if the earnings estimates turn out to be valid. Meanwhile it closed a half point lower than I sold it for this AM BTW, you might want to get the 9/7/98 issue of Forbes. It has a good article on Microsoft ,one on Russia, and several good columns. good luck