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Gold/Mining/Energy : Trico Marine Services (TMAR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (754)	8/25/1998 8:28:00 PM
From: Stephen L. Smith	Respond to of 1153

Darrell -- you've referred to the fact that TMAR management has been in a meeting (or meetings) during the past two days. Do you have any sense of what the agenda for this meeting is? Was the meeting scheduled, or unscheduled? The fact that management is in a huddle while the stock continues to plummet on more than twice average volume is, to put it lightly, disconcerting. Your input has been helpful and illuminating -- from a fundamental standpoint this stock looks like a steal (and, frankly, I thought it was a good buy at 19.75) -- but the market is treating it like there is something drastically wrong that goes beyond the oil surplus problem. Is TMAR's big debt load a concern to large investors bailing out? Does anybody have insight into who exactly is selling?

To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (754)	8/25/1998 9:12:00 PM
From: Gameboy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1153

Darrell, another thoughtful, analytical, information filled post - thanks. TMAR volume has really kicked up - 979,500 shares traded today. 5% turnover in one day is substantial. Hopefully, everybody who really didn't want this stock has dumped theirs and we'll have a more appreciative group. I know it sounds simplistic but if the shareholders just didn't dump, the price would rise. I, for one appreciate earning $2.00/share. Its sobering to think that Dell earns about $1.45/share and yet its stock trades for over $120/share. Best of luck, Steve

To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (754)	8/26/1998 8:12:00 AM
From: JZGalt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1153

if the price of oil begins to stabilize above $16 That is a huge IF right now. Current reading would lead me to believe that oil will not recover to that level any time soon (6 months out at least). I guess I don't understand your scenerio about the rig and the boats causing a spike in the price of TMAR. You say that it takes three months for a jackup to reset and rehire and this creates a "rush". I could see how this might work if oil prices spiked up to $16, but if they meander around the $14 level and slowly work there way higher, I don't see how a "rush" happens. The strongest companies will start to drill some more as the uptrend starts and the surge will continue if the trend continues higher, but it seems like the spike you are looking for in the dayrates will come with plenty of warning. Just an opinion.