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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jtechkid who wrote (23283)	8/25/1998 7:09:00 PM
From: Fortinwit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

its a buy at the open if it opens down I agree. If it holds 30, and the market isn't tanking, I'll take some September 30's or 32.5's depending on bids. If it doesn't hold 30, I'll keep watching... either way, I'll leave the Oct 32.5 puts on for another month, unless it gaps below 30. Tomorrow I see a smallish gap down, followed by a rally. Then a slide back to 30 as we head into next week. AMAT has been a traders dream for the last month. F.

To: jtechkid who wrote (23283)	8/25/1998 7:44:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

This news really shouldn't surprise anyone. It was widely rumored that layoffs were in the offing. Additionally, in their CC they said they expected a net gain of 3-5 cents, not including restructuring charges. Essentially, I believe that remains unchanged. This is not a warning that operating results will fall short of the 3-5 cents. It's merely affirming the fact the the charges will indeed bring the eps into the red for this Q. Although I respect AMAT mgt very much, as jtechkid indicated, they laid off people in '96 and it came back to bite them in the a**. Could this be a contrary indicator again? Probably not, but we'll see tomorrow whether all the bad news is in the stock price tomorrow. BTW, a block of 5000 shares after-hours is meaningless. Tomorrow the story will unfold. The waiting is the hardest part..... BK

To: jtechkid who wrote (23283)	8/25/1998 8:04:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

jtech, My recollection is that in '96, when this type of announcement came through in August, the stock traded as much as 25% lower before heading up. This occurred 4 weeks after the "management pay cuts" announcement. My recall is not perfect however. This isn't 1996. We now know the bounce in business occurred on the back of obscene borrowing. We also now know that management is terrible at projecting business turns. Savvy investors will ignore everything and buy based fundamental business valuations.

To: jtechkid who wrote (23283)	8/25/1998 9:23:00 PM
From: akidron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

As a guy who has been predicting AMAT would make a 4th quarter loss before it became fashionable, I would like to point out that revenues are now at pre 96' levels and profits are worse yet the stock is roughly 3 times more expensive. I should also like to point out that things can and will get worse as Japan has only started to crumble.... and IMO Amat has only just started to wake up and smell the coffee. I expect AMAT to earn around 50cents next year, and write off another $250 million.... do you really think any of this is in the price. FYI I believe that the stock might well hold up short term, but come october 30 I expect us to be knock knock knocking on 20's door.