Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : TLAB info? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JMD who wrote (3311)	8/25/1998 8:58:00 PM
From: DMaA	Respond to of 7342

On the other hand, how could T be stupid enough to disqualify a supplier? Exactly what I was thinking about when I said that if this is what T was trying to do it was short sighted. I'm rather sensitive to the one supplier problem right now living in a city serviced 80% by one air carrier that's going on strike. The only other answer is that CIEN management both has a piece of garbage product and managed to completely piss off T. There really is something funny about CIEN. I've been thinking this since Guilder panned them one month and then turned around and gave them a thumbs up a month latter. And then he posted a couple of weeks ago saying how much he thought of CIEN and the wisdom of TLAB/CIEN. I have never seen him desend from his 10,000 foot view of things to say so much ( and such contradictory ) things about any individual company. It's a real mystery. Don't expect to ever get a satisfactory solution. And the worst part is, I can't for the life of me think of a way to profit from the situation.

To: JMD who wrote (3311)	8/25/1998 10:01:00 PM
From: dougjn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 7342

Mike, I think it is very likely the deal will go through, but at something like .8 to .85 tlab per cien. If so you shouldn't end up doing so badly given the price you paid. Have you seen this post: exchange2000.com It truly is a must read. Unfortunately I didn't read it until after the close today. Thinking of picking up some Cien tomorrow. Though my attention is gonna be rather focused on Bonnie and Beaufort, North Carolina, eight miles upstream from which is where my boat is at the moment. :( Fortunately, its at least on the hard, having some stuff done. Doug

To: JMD who wrote (3311)	8/25/1998 10:20:00 PM
From: Willie C.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 7342

Doesn't AT&T hold a considerable amount of Lucent stock? Therefore, when Lucent profits from sales to AT&T doesn't AT&T profit also? If these assumptions are correct then Lucent has a financial edge on beating their competition when bidding for AT&T contracts. If Lucent wants to hedge out competition are they not entitled to negotiate in a similar manner as TLAB did when courting Ciena? Is it reasonable for TLAB to head-off a bidding war for Ciena with a 200 Mil. back-out penalty on the one hand and unacceptable for Lucent to cut a sole supplier deal with AT&T on the other hand? The issue is, how should Management act to serve the interests of their respective stockholders? Exactly what has taken place, and what exactly "business ethics" are, remains in question. Following this tact I would like to pose the following question. What would be the publics attitude if Lucent had entered into an exclusive supplier agreement with AT&T and AT&T had not disclosed it allowing a public perception to continue that Ciena was a contender for that same equipment contract until some time after the merger. I'm sure that most TELAB stockholders would prefer to be negotiating from their present situation rather than the latter. Everyone is well aware of the familial relationship between AT&T and Lucent. Considering the competitive threat a TLAB/CIEN merger presents Lucent, especially when they are competing right at AT&T's door, Lucent better not lose out or their stockholders are in trouble! Some may say that this is another case of blood being thicker than water, but in the end its about money isn't it? Respectfully, Willie C.

To: JMD who wrote (3311)	8/25/1998 11:24:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7342

Mike, you said It's not the last mistake I'll make investing but the problem is: I can't even figure out what my mistake was. The answer is you didn't make any mistakes. This is a simple case of business risk. It is totally unpredictable and you cannot plan for it other than to diversify your portfolio, and even then it hurts. This is probably a good case study for those who don't understand the necessity of diversification. TTFN, CTC

To: JMD who wrote (3311)	8/26/1998 12:34:00 AM
From: pass pass	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 7342

I think T and LU are trying to do the following: Spoil the TLAB/CIEN party. If the merger somehow survives, both TLAB and CIEN people will feel hostile against each, especially at the upper management level because TLAB will think they pay too much for a loser, CIEN think they get too little with their post-SONET technology. On the other hand, if the merger calls off, LU can beat CIEN first and then beat TLAB because the two seperate entities are a lot easier to deal with than the combined one. LU is also trying to give other telcos and possible future CIEN suitors a signal: "Hey CIEN's product sucks, T doesn't even want to look at it". Birk and Nettles probably know all these, and they'll probably work out a compromise with a very high break-up fee to prevent another WCOM/MCIC/BT.

To: JMD who wrote (3311)	8/26/1998 1:27:00 PM
From: bananawind	Respond to of 7342

Mike, I wouldn't beat yourself up too much. The reasoning was sound. If you bought where I think you did, (CIEN approx $54) assuming the deal goes through at .85 or so, you paid about $63 for some TLAB. Not too different from the price it was trading at that day, or from today's quote. I would be very surprised if the deal does not go through at .85 or better, as it is very much in TLAB's long term interest to make this work. Birck strikes me as a man who would not want to acquiesce to short term pressures at the expense of the firm's long term prospects, and CIEN can probably find other suitors at $50-$60. IMO the recent price action and current spread reflects the huge arb position that had/has to be unwound and the timing of the announcement (s**t hitting the fan all over the globe). In a stock like TLAB, overpaying by 10 or 15 percent, while painful in the short run, should not make much difference to your long term return if you have the fundamentals right. Surf on. Jim