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To: waverider who wrote (2125)	8/25/1998 11:51:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 14427

yep, that's why they'll take a dive. Tell me, who else in the WORLD is going to buy US treasuries that hasn't already???? Answer-- NOBODY. Here goes: My theory is that the Japanese and British (L-time holders of US bonds and stocks) have been selling (and will continue to do so) into this melt-up in US bonds, stocks and the dollar. Afterall, the dollar can't get any higher than now. Not only are US investors flocking wholsesale into the bond mkt as a "can't lose-safe investment" but when else is every investor on the planet going to be buying dollars and and US bonds like they are now because he's afraid his currency will implode? Especially when we have a huge trade deficit that is only getting worse? The only reason investors have flocked to the dollar is because it is going up (remind you of a stock mkt we know?) when the dollar and bonds stop rising and they will bomb, money will leave the country in a tidal wave(I think into its eventual resting place--gold... because the currency problems we are seeing now will likely get much worse). Name me one investor besides nutty me that thinks interest rates are going higher??? There aren't any. Everyone has made their deflationary bet and they're following the rule book to the letter. The CRB has gone off a cliff and bonds have soared. The part about our currency is what everyone is forgetting--my guess is they aren't forgetting just not mentioning it afterall no reason to panic the public that their beloved stock mkt will soon be a memory? (Clinton doesn't help the dollar either) Ask the Russians how safe their treasuries were in a deflationary environment when the ruble got shredded? It is awfully arrogant for Americans to think the dollar will remain strong while other currencies implode? My view calls for a modest selloff in stocks down to maybe 6500 at the worst w/out rates moving dramatically higher sometime in Sept. At that point we should get a rally as world equity mkts may stabilize BUT... this is where it gets fun-- the meltup in bonds ends and interest rates skyrocket surprising everyone and thereby sending the DOW to its final resting place near 4000. Conversely, the world might not stabilize and we still get a relief rally but the bond and dollar simply stop moving higher and reverse thus causing the same result. that's my story and I'm sticking to it. -Lucretius

To: waverider who wrote (2125)	8/26/1998 12:25:00 AM
From: waverider	Respond to of 14427

More possible shorts: These are all stocks I once owned and have been ignoring them the past month to my despair. Ordered according to what I see as their short potential (first being best). ANLT. They are involved in the electronic mapping business where cities hire them to put roads, utilities, etc. on electronic maps. A great company...lousy chart. I see support around 22 where is it now. Possible drop to 16. Keep an eye on it. 207.95.154.130 SBUX. I love their coffee but the stock is still way over valued. It seems ready to go to 32 from the current 36. 207.95.154.130 SUIT. Seems to be muddling around a confusing support range here, but it could go to 24 easily. Least reward compared to risk from what I can see, so I'm not interested but I think someone mention them in the past. 207.95.154.130 <H>