To: Redman who wrote (28367 ) 8/26/1998 9:12:00 PM From: Les H Respond to of 95453
From FuturesMag.com Energy Futures Maintain Weak Tone Despite API Data New York-Aug. 26-FWN--Crude oil and product futures finished with a weaker tone Wednesday afternoon as outside influences overshadowed the unexpected draws reported in crude oil supplies this past week. However, selling pressure did not expand as much as some expected Wednesday, given the financial meltdown in Russia and the postponement of the meetings Friday of the Mexican, Venezuelan and Saudi Arabian oil ministers in Mexico City. Commodity prices as measured by the Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) Index fell to their lowest levels since 1986 Wednesday while the Goldman, Sachs Commodity Index, which is more heavily weighted in energy commodities, is trading at its lowest levels since December of 1977. Many are saying this weakness in the commodity markets is projecting a global recession six to 12 months in the future. "It's an indication that we are in more dire straits than anyone suspected," commented one analyst on the demand outlook. However, one Wall Street economist, who asked to remain anonymous, said the commodity markets are in the final throes of an extended decline. However, he said he will be closely watching the general media response to this weakness in commodity prices the next several weeks to confirm that commodities are reaching an important low. He said the commodity indices are telling him that the Asian financial crisis is reaching a peak in terms of its influence on commodities. He said the wheat market is probably the most undervalued commodity around and the strongest signal that commodity prices are nearing a bottom. "Wheat is a basic food item around the globe and is trading 2 standard deviations below fair value," he noted. He said that a computer model run on wheat that increased U.S. production by 2.3%, cut domestic U.S. wheat usage by 12% and lowered U.S. wheat exports by 14% from current USDA forecasts still put out an average price for wheat of $2.45, about where nearby futures are trading. The energy side of the commodity price equation is more difficult to predict, he noted. That's because of the multiple levels of production streams. While crude oil and other energy products are not as far away from fair value as the wheat market, he said the markets are ready to bottom as well. He is forecasting that crude oil prices basis the nearby futures will rally back to $17 a barrel by the first quarter of next year. He expects OPEC and other oil producers to make the cuts pledged earlier this year and for demand to slowly improve. He said the steep contango in the futures market supports his view that the market will soon bottom and begin to move higher.