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Strategies & Market Trends : Shorting stocks: Broken stocks - Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Anaxagoras who wrote (1704)	8/26/1998 11:35:00 AM
From: chester lee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2506

John and Anax, Key words that rang in my head after reading the last 2 posts are short interest, POSS, R&D and Medical devices. POSS announced prelim (meaning unaudited and NOT final) Q4 1997 results. It seems that sales are increasing, but not enough to overcome the R&D, SG&A and other costs of running a business. I suspect companies like POSS that rely on FDA approval for their medical devices are not going to explode overnight, since the medical and surgical community doesn't change or adapt to changes overnight. A drug on the other hand I would be more worry about. biz.yahoo.com MINNEAPOLIS, Aug. 26 /PRNewswire/ -- Possis Medical, Inc. (Nasdaq: POSS - news) announced today preliminary, unaudited fourth quarter and 1998 results. Total revenue for the fourth quarter and year ended July 31, 1998 was approximately $1,756,000 and $6,118,000, respectively, compared to $1,208,000 and $4,834,000 in the same 1997 periods. The estimated loss per share for the three and twelve month periods ended July 31, 1998 was $.28 and $.98 per share, respectively, vs. $.24 and $.70 per share in the same 1997 periods. Robert Dutcher, president and CEO stated, ''U.S. AngioJet(R) System sales in the fourth quarter of $1,756,000 are up 10% from the prior quarter. In May, to spur sales and product usage, we reduced the U.S. AngioJet drive unit hospital price from $80,000 to $25,000 and introduced our AV60 catheter, a lower priced and more competitive catheter for removing blood clots from dialysis access grafts. As a result, we sold 14 drive units in the fourth quarter, compared to 13 in the three prior quarters combined; and we sold 1,409 catheters in the 1998 fourth quarter, up 21% from catheter sales in the 1998 third quarter. Cumulatively, in the U.S., by the close of fiscal 1998 we had placed nearly 200 drive units and sold over 5,000 disposable sets (catheter plus pump).''

To: Anaxagoras who wrote (1704)	8/26/1998 11:55:00 AM
From: Q.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2506

Anaxagoras, I just tried your suggestion of eliminating R&D co.'s to see what would happen. The way I did this was by replacing the PSR > 2 criterion with 2 < PSR < 10. Doing the screen with Telescan's Prosearch allows me to do a backtest to see what the results would be if you had selected stocks using this method 1 mo. ago, 2 mo. ago, etc. up to 12 mos. ago. That's a nice feature. The results are similar to those of my previous screen, but not quite as good. For example the 12 mo. return for my previous screen was -55%, vs. -40% when the PSR is capped at 10. There's no way for me to screen directly on price * ave volume, but since most of these stocks lie betwee $5 and $15, I suppose it doesn't matter that much if I use volume.