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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian Oil & Gas Companies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Doug who wrote (5351)	8/26/1998 9:48:00 PM
From: Gulo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24899

All/ oil price - Two factors that I believe should be given more weight are the dramatic recent global political developments and the US/CDN exchange rate. On the 10+ % change in the US/CDN exchange rate - Bearcat was right. While US companies have seen a drop from the twenties to US$13.58 (todays close for NYMEX Sweet), Canadian firms have effectively only seen a drop to about US$15. This should save our skins, although I expect to see ever more takeovers. As for the middle east - expect to see a regional war within a year. Saudi Arabia may be suffering a drastic change of government, with the ill health of its leader. Even if it doesn't, Iraq is facing growing ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia, it old enemies. Extreme Wahhabism (a moslem faction that started in Saudi Arabia) is now creating chaos in Afganistan, Chechnya and elsewhere and may even give Yeltsin (or his successor) an excuse to start another regional war. I think we may see a dramatic drop in Middle East oil output, when Iran/Saudi Arabia attack Iran or when the region finds some other reason to self-emolate.