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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GUSTAVE JAEGER who wrote (480)	8/26/1998 12:52:00 PM
From: Henry Volquardsen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3536

Gustave, As a charter member of the currency mob I agree with your sentiments about why the dollar will be strong against Europe. The US budget deficit and national debt numbers are superior to any major economy in Europe. In addition Germany will take a major hit on Russia. Also official protestations to the contrary, the EU states do not want a stronger Euro. They need job growth to sell the Euro to the various electorates and a strong currency will make that more difficult. In fact the French have, as usual, got themselves tied up in semantic knots. They are travelling the globe trying to sell the Euro as a strong currency because they want to be able to sneer at the US. At the meantime they want to argue for a devaluationist approach to promote jobs. As to why the 'currency mob' is not trashing the European currencies at the moment is not because they are trying to insure a smooth transition for Schroeder. The big question vis a vis the future for the Euro will be how many non European central banks will want to diversify into Euros as a reserve asset and wether that will support the Euro for a time. If that were not an issue I believe the European currencies would be under greater pressure now. Henry

To: GUSTAVE JAEGER who wrote (480)	8/27/1998 12:53:00 AM
From: Investor-ex!	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

Hi GUSTAVE, IMO, global markets have peaked, the US stock market has peaked, and eventually, the US dollar will peak, too -- sometime between now and early 2000. ALL currencies, including the euro, will fall because they're backed with a mountain of debt and dependent upon faltering debt-laden economies increasingly unable to service that debt. Much of this debt will be repudiated, causing further damage to the bag holders. Debt and equity are both going into the doghouse and staying there for an extended period, though I don't doubt that holding a few $US will provide some comfort, short term. In a way, this party started with Russia in the late 80's and is now coming full-circle.