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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (19547)8/26/1998 5:15:00 PM
From: Rupsky  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 50167
 
Iqbal, all seems to be well for you - great.
I've been doing other things like US real estate recently and have not concentrated on stocks - in this environment in the US Northeast, the opportunities are just too attractive. But who knows how long.
I saw Stanley Druckenmiller (Soros) on CNBC today. Here are some of his points with a 3 to 6 months view: (I was on the treadmill, so no guarantee that I got it right)

 They lost some $ 2 bn in Russia, but Quantum is still up 19% this year. Major performance contribution from being long US equities to April, then out and probably short some.
 Thinks the Fed will lower rates
 Market sentiment for bonds is bearish - therefore not he.
 The Russia situation is pretty fully discounted in the markets. Forced selling by (other) hedge funds may create short term opportunities
 The dollar continues to be attractive, though not necessarily the most attractive currency
 He would not be long Japan or the rest of Asia or Latin America
 Stay with the Haves - US and major Western Europe. German market most attractive there.
 Because of interest rates (see above) and a lot of panicking (like put/call ratio on Friday at 1.22), he thinks the US equity market is attractive right now.
 Stay with the big names and don't look at small caps.

I'm not sure why he went on TV except to say that losing some in Russia doesn't harm them overall. Anyway, during the interview, the market went from -110 to -50. Maybe they should have kept him on longer.

Have a GREAT day
Ullrich Moser