To: dfloydr who wrote (2311 ) 8/26/1998 4:19:00 PM From: Noblesse Oblige Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3247
Hi Floyd.... I wouldn't worry too much about hostile bids and their probability of success. Although you are correct in your assessment that shares are being sold by the most disenfranchised investors (almost certainly all the major funds other than Chancellor), the best that can be said is that management's current 13% position increases a few percent in concentration. However, I would like to point out the painfully obvious: If management thought it was at any risk to an "unfriendly" acquisition, it would have some defenses in place. Though you may not know it, one of my friends actually asked a senior manager about that (why there wasn't a poison pill and so forth), and he was told "We don't believe in them." In the end, it won't matter to a buyer. All one has to do is wait until you get close to the annual meeting, and run a different Board against the inbred one that currently holds office. Once the Board is replaced (and what shareholder would vote for current management given what their stewardship has meant to the company the last five years?) any bid can go through. So, the bottom line is that *IF* there is a potential unfriendly buyer, he will surface in his own due time and at his own deliberate speed. Most probably, he will allow the company to continue with its share repurchase, as this removes shares from the market that would otherwise require a premium to be bought. Lastly, it is my guess (get that Doug...it's a *guess*!) that TFS wasn't in the marketplace for share repurchases today. There was no different feel to the stock during the first and last half hours, the stock traded minuscule volume, and there was never an obvious bid for size. Do you think they watch this "thread" in an effort to zig when we think they are zagging? If so, it is the "tail" told here that wags the TFS dog. <G> Have a good evening.