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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: upanddown who wrote (31612)8/27/1998 12:45:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin  Respond to of 132070
 
John, We all know about index funds. But many are not aware that most big bank trust departments are now using "overlays." What they do is buy the S&P 500, usually a basket of stocks, though I have seen a few use the Spiders, and use short futures to hedge them using a proprietary timing system (they typically buy high, sell low <G>). Waht they do works something like this. They buy the basket. If the market declines 5%, they short a number of futures. If it goes down further, they short more futures. Then, at the bottom, they are fairly well hedged against making money on the upside. Customers eat this up for several reasons. First, futures are tax-advantaged instruments and commissions are lower. Second, all the long stock attains and then holds on to long term status, as it is never sold. Third, they receive a security blanket as the market heads down. Fourth, at the top when everyone thinks the market is heading higher, they are fully invested.

This stuff is insane. Sort of like the idea that a camel is a horse designed by a commitee, overlays are like my thirds system designed by jackasses. But this junk sells to the brain dead customers. It also makes high priced portfolio managers and analysts superfluous. Underperformance is certain, but the quant jock can show you in a long, complicated formula why your risk-adjusted return is fine. <G>

Needless to say, this works better for the S&P than for the Russell or other indices. The Dow is not enough stocks to allow the trust department their initial commissions. And the futures are not nearly as liquid as the Sub-Standard Get Poorer 500 or the OEX. And the small cap incices have too many names. So, Goldilocks finds the 500 and the 100 just right.

This means that all of these trust funds do not have to sell Dell if it crashes. The futures take care of that. Which means that Dell is less likely to crash, or, to crash as much as it should. Now, this is not as protective for smaller holdings in the 500. If the 498th stock is doing poorly, it may be punted without anyone noticing the difference. But you have to hold on to the big uglies to have any chance of matching the index move.

IMHO, this means the big stocks go way up beyond any normal valuations, which they have done. And, if and when the customers wise up or die (their grandkids know all about mutual fund investing and are not likely to stick with the lousy performance from Wells Fargo or Watermelon Bank), it will mean a much bigger crash for these stocks. Since this is the Depression Baby generation, not the Boomers, I expect a lot of this trust money to exit in the near future.

MB