Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (25224)	8/26/1998 8:57:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

If we are in a bear mkt, we stay oversold and the put/call ratio reverses in importance. The norm should be favoring puts, when it shows too many calls.... we're overbought and it is time to sell. contrarian indicators only work when one knows the primary trend. -Lucretius BTW- I don't anticipate a crash day. This mkt will likely just grind down week after week. ALSO: what do you make of these: Tuesday August 25, 4:11 pm Eastern Time Nasdaq short interest down in mid-August WASHINGTON, Aug 25 (Reuters) - Short interest in the 5,301 Nasdaq securities was 2.13 billion as of mid-August, compared with 2.15 billion in 5,399 issues in July. Short interest in 4,077 Nasdaq National Market Securities was 2.08 billion, compared with 2.09 billion shares in 4,111 issues in July. The August short interest represents 2.82 days of average daily Nasdaq Nation Market share for the reporting period, compared with 2.97 days in July. Short interest in the 1,224 securities on the Nasdaq SmallCap Market totaled 48.28 million shares for August, compared with 61.47 shares in 1,288 securities in July. This represents 0.75 days of average daily volume compared with 1.24 days in July. ----------------------------- Thursday August 20, 4:47 pm Eastern Time NYSE mid-August short interest falls NEW YORK, Aug 20 (Reuters) - The New York Stock Exchange said Thursday short interest for the month ended August 14 fell by 28.67 million shares to 4.1 billion shares. The exchange said the short interest for the month ended July 15 was 4.13 billion shares.

To: bobby beara who wrote (25224)	8/27/1998 4:40:00 AM
From: Philipp	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi Bobby: This guy is looking for 1360 and then there is Wolanchuk top timer in timers digest looking for Dow 16,000 this year and the epicenter of primary wave 3 Thanks for the reference. It looks very scientific, but still a bit like voodoo to me. so you might say only about a month ago nobody expected a crash or a bear market True, but I would distinguish between a crash-like event and a bear market. You can have a bear market without crashes. For a rare event like a crash many different factors have to coincide (weak technicals, panic sentiment and a triggering event), for a bear that is not necessary. But the best investing strategies in the two cases are rather different. Of course, when a bubble bursts you are likely to have both. You might say that since we are so oversold, most of the bulls (and plenty of bears) might think we need another rally before the bear market continues or the crash begins - I think that we are already in a bear market, it is just not confirmed for the major indices yet. WHAT IF surprise, we didn't get that rally. I have thought about that one as well, but have not come to a firm conclusion. Russia is an interesting sentiment test. Rationally it should be a non-event for the U.S. market (unlike Asia). If the market reacts negatively to Russia two days in a row (though I would consider yesterday quite resilient), that would indicate weakening underlying sentiment. It looks like another gap down this morning, but smells like manipulation again. Good trading to all, Phil

To: bobby beara who wrote (25224)	8/27/1998 7:15:00 AM
From: Philipp	Respond to of 94695

Well, today could be a key day after all, considering the uncertainty in Japan, and Germany close to panic selling. Perhaps we will see a crash signal (close below 1050 SPX or so). On the other hand, Russia is still not really relevant. That realization could just as well trigger a dramatic rebound after the morning sell-off and the beginning of that rally that has not happened yet (sentiment is still not gloomy enough). I think it is too close to call (I am therefore holding a spread). Any other bad news could well tip the balance (GDP revisions? should not be too relevant). In any case, it should be interesting. Cheers, Phil