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Technology Stocks : Identix (IDNX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Buck who wrote (10066)	8/26/1998 10:01:00 PM
From: David	Respond to of 26039

Buck, I don't think the stock price has come about as a result of ASCOM. We have seen average to below average volume in the stock, as a matter of fact, not higher than average, which could indicate distribution. We certainly haven't seen bad news announced out of IDX that would justify a major price break. What is the intrinsic value of the company? Salomon put a value on ANADAC last December of about $2.25 per share (by the way, it was acquired for about $.25 per share in 1992, a very good investment). With growth continuing, I think that the valuation would be more like $2.50 -- excluding GSA sales, which belong in the AFIS segment. Then there is the TP-600, AFIS business. We still don't have a 10K out, so it is pretty hard to determine how this is going, but there was a recent statement out of Fowler, I think, that placed product sales (mainly AFIS, that is) at $65 million per year. The AFIS business is growing at about 40% per year, or more on a base of, I'm guessing now in the absence of a new 10K, about $55-60 million. I would say the market is presently valuing this area of business at, perhaps, another $2.50 per share, or at a ratio of about 1 times sales. That is quite low, in my opinion, for a clearly profitable segment with a solid growth rate and very little in the way of competitive threats. In fact, margins here are probably increasing. That leaves the bio-ID business. And there is some, if not a lot, in security and access for prisons and banks. More than there is for other biometric companies that have had the press releases over the past six months. Let's give that business, which is growing (although it hasn't broken through) a P/S ratio of 2, or about $.50 per share. In fact, this segment may be negatively valued right now, since it is soaking up profits from the TP-600 sales. That adds up to $5.50. Do these seem like reasonable valuations to you? They don't to me. What it does tell me, though, is that there is a chance for a qualitative change in the IDX share price with any breakthrough announcement, since it would force fundamental revaluations by the analysts. Even without a big O'Hare or Oracle announcement, for example, or even an INS deal, I think this stock is underpriced. But in the small-cap, high-tech bear market we're now in, that kind of correction can take a while to get through. David PS -- I don't see any competitors with profits or, in most cases, with any significant revenues whatsoever. IDX is running at close to $100 million in revenues, and increasing revenues at an extremely high rate.

To: Buck who wrote (10066)	8/26/1998 10:28:00 PM
From: steve	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26039

Buck, a couple of possible positives... only the positives are posted here. Go to the link for the rest of the story... From stkwtch.com MF = 34 MF Direction = UP MFI (Money Flow Index) The Money Flow Index tracks the flow of money into or out of a stock. Readings below 20 indicate that a stock is Oversold, a short term bullish condition while levels above 80 suggest an Overbought bearish condition. The Money Flow Index is calculated over a 14 day period. On Balance Volume = BL (bullish) OBV (On-Balance-Volume) The original theory of On-Balance-Volume (OBV) was developed by Joseph Granville. The basic assumption underlying the method is that the marketplace is divided between "Smart Money" and the "General Public." Smart money accumulates stocks at low prices and distributes it to the general public at higher prices. The OBV technique is an attempt to uncover smart money's hidden accumulation and distribution patterns before significant price movement occurs. OBV is computed in the following manner. If a stock closes up for the day, the total volume for that day is considered to have been Buy Induced and therefore the stock is under accumulation. Conversely, a stock that closes down for the day is regarded as having been under Sell Induced pressure and the trading activity is considered to have been distribution. The volume on Up days is totaled against the volume traded on Down days. The net is a running total of OBV, and is either a positive which is bullish (BL) or negative, a bearish (BR) condition. "Second Opinion" calculates net OBV totals based on trading activity during the preceding 50 days. steve