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Strategies & Market Trends : Investment in Russia and Eastern Europe -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Rob Shilling who wrote (543)8/26/1998 11:09:00 PM
From: Rob Shilling  Respond to of 1301
 
Here my checklist for getting negative Russian news off the air and giving some hope to Russian stock prices:

1) The ruble finds a level, 7,10,12 something that sticks

2) A lot of Russian banks fail completely

3) The $10 billion in wage arrears are paid

4) The budget deficit shows a big narrowing (hopefully due to
the GKO refinance, ruble devaluation, and tax collection)

5) Oil prices get $4-5 dollars higher than their low

6) The Duma makes a few more positive decisions on "austerity"
measures

7) Yeltsin, and Victor C. are finished with all sackings and have
appointed all new cabinet members

8) The IMF gives out the next tranche of money ($4 or so billion
scheduled for September)

9) Intel and Microsoft have big declines in their stock prices :)

Have you all checked out Yahoo International news ?? Russia is mentioned about every 5 stories.
I still think around $15 billion in help from some international source would help Russia bottom this crisis out if they spent it on wage arrears and debt redemption rather than "ruble propping".