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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (19122)	8/27/1998 12:58:00 AM
From: Czechsinthemail	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Zeev, Of course none of us knows for sure how low it might go. It's the uncertainty that keeps people unsure whether to sell in anticipation of lower prices or hold/buy in anticipation of prices moving higher. What we can say is that historically when the price has been in this range, there has been considerable consternation and abundant expectation that the price was going lower. And of course it is possible that the semi recession will extend and perhaps get worse, but it's virtually certain that when we hit and pass the bottom it will look like it is going to get worse. Given the uncertainty, I think the real question is whether potential sellers feel there is enough downside left in CYMI's price to make it worth the risk of missing out on an upside that everyone in the universe (with the possible exception of acidman) seems to agree upon. Or conversely, will potential buyers feel the downside risk is sufficiently low compared with the risk of missing out on substantial appreciation? At some point when things are looking very grim, semi and semi equip stocks will begin to move up and many will be convinced it's a fake out. Only instead of coming back down, the share prices will continue to move up accelerated by short-covering and people not wanting to miss out on a monstro move. Two items from the silver lining department: 1) Durable goods orders were up 2.4% -- way above consensus estimates. 2) Briefing.com announced that DLJ was upgrading its group rating for semiconductor stocks from "market perform" to "buy," based on firm's positive outlook for chips... Baird