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Technology Stocks : DELL Bear Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Moominoid who wrote (1697)	8/27/1998 5:27:00 PM
From: Jose A. Almodovar	Respond to of 2578

David, I have kidded you in the past regarding your bear position. I sold Dell at $128 on 8/26. I believe there will be an opportunity to get back in between $119 - $116. I would suggest this may be a good entry point so you can participate in the next $50 - $60 move up before the end of the year. After that run you can go back to shorting if you wish. My time horizon does not see beyond the end of the year. Do not look to ludicrous to support your current bearish view, if you do you will miss the run!!!!!!!! Good luck P.S. I hate to see anyone loose money I know how hard it is to make it.

To: Moominoid who wrote (1697)	8/29/1998 9:42:00 PM
From: lin luo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2578

David Stein, It was nice to have discussions with you. To me, it seems you try to do the wrong thing (and you don't want to tell me either. :-)) You have more knowledge in math about economics. But wrong direction may just lead you to nowhere. Your basic assumption is that the trend is deterministic with a superposition of noise, or a stochastic trend with a deterministic underlying. This might be the fundamental wrong assumptions in western science. If you look at the people walking on the busy street, what you see is chaos, but remember everyone knows where he is going. The basic assumptions could be that the world IS formed based on some very generic deterministic patterns. From biology, market patterns (especially Elliot wave theory), and most important from the ancient Chinese Yi code (what is where the Yin and Yang, binary came from) They all hinted me a generic pattern. So, I coded this pattern, parameterized it with noise and superpositioned them. I thought I got the secret patten chart that could solve all the problems in the world. It looked very strange. Upon I applied it to the markets I realized there was one thing missing. The world is not quite 3D and I solved the 2D problem (maybe, who knows). The third is the not-quite-random event that will shape the pattern and the new pattern will move to a new maximum entropy point if no new impacts come in.... But, through this excise, I learned much more about the markets. Now, I understand where and what to look (hopefully). :-)

To: Moominoid who wrote (1697)	9/2/1998 12:41:00 PM
From: Stewart Walton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2578

Your description of the stochastic process underlying stock price variation doesn't help me a bit. If the drift term is noisy (a random walk itself), then it just adds its noise to the overall process. It certainly does not make it more predictable in the sense of knowing where the price will be or "should be". And if the underlying process is not random, then the defense of statistical methods is flawed. Personally, it all appears to me to be so much handwaving and smoke blowing.