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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (13191)	8/27/1998 5:49:00 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

XIRC is way ahead of it's 50 dma and 200 dma. Should be a good short on any rebound to 23. It's a small cap that became a momentum play. They do networking cards for portables. They've exceeded estimates the past few qrts, but it's a very cyclical industry. Look at the 10 yr chart. Roger, as far as the internets you have to be selective. EGRP, AMTD and NSCP are relatively cheap. They may fall further, but I wouldn't recommend shorting these internets. EGRP at 22 1/2 is below the price softbank paid for a 30% stake (25). Yes, fewer people will trade in a bear market, but people will continue to move from full to discount brokerages as the internet grows. It's one of my favorite plays right now.

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (13191)	8/27/1998 7:44:00 PM
From: Market Tracker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Roger, I agree. There is still quite a bit of air which could be let out of the internet's balloon. The last hour of trading today was downright ugly (for those long). An aire of capitulation existed just prior to the close, but the market closed before it could run its course. In Japan, the Nikkei will be down very heavy this evening, perhaps a thousand points or more, IMO. Nikkei may not stop until it hits or pierces the 11,000 mark. The new watchword is going to be Brazil, as their economy comes under much closer scrutiny in the days ahead, as their debt comes due and reserves diminish. Many coming economic wildfires around the world, will no doubt effect the earnings power of the big banks. JTC has been saying it for quite a long time, and now the "international banking crises" appears to have arrived at our doorstep. I am presently 100% in cash, and observing this unfolding situation. VIP (Vimpel Com.) might be a good short play on the deteriorating situation in Russia, although it was socked in the eye today. Haven't done enough DD on that one though. Your model short portfolio has begun to produce some very good short-term returns of late. Good Luck, Gary