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Technology Stocks : Safeguard Scientifics SFE -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Arnopp who wrote (1623)	8/27/1998 6:31:00 PM
From: michael r potter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4467

Question not directed at me, but could I venture an opinion? If you remember the decline SFE had in early 1996 [from its previous $46.00 high] to the app. $18 low, that was a washout-solid bottom that was a precursor to a move back to $46. What would be an equivalent low price today? SFE [through private and public partnership companies has grown at least 30% to 40% since then-overall, even with exceptions like CMPC] I.E. SFE as a business is 30% to 40% more valuable now than 1 1/2 years ago. A buying opportunity similar to the '96 low would be that price plus 30% to 40%. That works out to somewhere between $23.40 to $25.20. There are differences. Possible negatives now vs. then include: that SFE was trading at a discount to NAV. then but is now at a premium; 2. There is a real problem of finding enough qualified workers and wages for them are rising rapidly. On the positive side, is the fact that interest rates and inflation are substantially lower than at the previous bottom, which from a valuation standpoint justifies higher stock prices than occurred at that time. Also, sentiment is pretty atrocious toward mid to small tech stocks and huge declines have already occurred. Both of these are conditions co-incident with a bottom. Whether this is the bottom or THE bottom- who knows, but to buy a quality company like SFE after a 40% decline, when there is near panic selling is usually a recipe for having some fun later. Best of luck. Mike