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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Tom M who wrote (19585)8/27/1998 5:34:00 PM
From: James Strauss  Respond to of 50167
 
Good analysis Tom:

I agree with you regarding the overvalued markets... But, a recession means people lose jobs and we buy less from overseas when they need our currency the most... A decision to cut rates by the FED has worldwide economic and political implications... I'll call it the lesser of two evils at this time...

Jim



To: Tom M who wrote (19585)8/28/1998 2:45:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 50167
 
Tom-- I totally agree -- Fed should keep out of this-- these very same people months back were worried about Gold prices slightly picking up, most of the hard core economists like Krugman are more worried about inflation than deflation-- it is neither inflation nor deflation it is the worries of the market, the leverage factor of the new economy is working ruthlessly, in case of other economies a fall in stock market creates pressure on its currency and the fate of the country is sealed once the two start falling together, on the other hand imagine US we have this huge 20% correction from 1200 on S&P and we see $ stronger, the $ assets are new haven or the new gold rather we see long bond much lower flattening of the yield curve showing that markets will be the prime benefactors. The problem willl come if we see mass unemployment, low industrial production, a sharp drop in capacity utilisation, lower NAPM and depressed consumer demand ,none of these things is evident, in absence of what I have mentioned that markets will do exactly when element of fear is taken out what they have doing for last 4 years.

I see these guys on CNBC and I think listening to them how little they are aware of the underlying forces which dominate the market, imagine in a month to create 'deflation' from threats of overheating.I agree with your approach that markets are not suppose to be rockets moving up straight in a trajectory but they need to maintain a certain corse in that context I would like a close above 1055 today.

We have in US non-inflationary growth and Fed needs to keep at present the interest rates where they are, within a week as numbers come in the we would see that market will move in the direction where fundamentals will lead the market to.

If Fed starts manipulating the market through easing we may see a rally but in no time as strong numbers will reveal we will have a structural problem, I have been predicitng a move down nearly for quite some time but I would like the move down based on real interest rates and after confirmation that we have slowing quarters so far we are not facing such a situation- rather we will see that these low yields in itself acts like a rate cut, at these long bond yield levels S&P should be around 1130. It is helpful for the market to get these corrections so that overblown valuations are taken care off. In our times we use to see the growth in our portfolios very slow and correction really severe, nowadays we are use to up day every day or it is considered as strange that we did not have that snap back rally-- on both counts I think it is the corporate earnings which are going to decide the fate- but before that the stream of numbers from this Monday will help the market regain its damage. Most of the technical damage if it is inflation or fundamental based takes time to heal- Nikkei is one example but in a country like US where it is based on uncertain rumors and breakup of Russia I will expect this to self- correct. Events related selling should be left to events improvemnts. Once Duma votes for the PM we may see some order in Russia. I was expecting much more a serious action in Japan but from the lows it did come up, the futures are for a change in black and Europe has not even started trading-- in my opinion we will see some serious buying coming in within this coming week- My level for today would be 1025 test and a close above 1055...