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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bob Swift who wrote (1097)	8/27/1998 8:02:00 PM
From: M. Ramle	Respond to of 10280

Bob: Your comments are very valid and make a lot of sense. The overall market is acting very weak and the selling frenzy is feeding on itself. Having said that and for the first time in a long time, I feel there is panic selling on heavy volume coming from the individual investor. This is telling me that the institutional money is getting ready to come back into the market very soon. Yes, it might take another bloodbath tomorrow (depending on what and how the Japanese market does tonight), but we are getting very close to a stabilization levels around the 8,100 level on the DOW (almost there !!!!). As far as SEPR is involved, let me tell you that I was practically clued to my screen allday today, and it was very obvious that there was good large-block buying most of the day until 45-minutes before the closing, when everything just tanked. I think your fear regarding SEPR NOT reacting for a Prozac deal with Eli-Lilly is invalid because if (I should rather say "when") this deal is announced, you would be looking at an additional $1.00-$1.25 EPS over and above the already projected $5.50 EPS in year 2002. I also understand that these numbers are only projections, but this is how WallStreet works -- projections & anticipitation and GOD forbid if they are not met !!!!!!!! Even without the additional earnings from any Prozac deal, at $5.50 EPS in 2002 with a P/E multiple of 30 and a discount rate of 40% per year, will clearly give a price of $84 by the end of this year. All in all, I am starting to add to my position and will average down in case it dips lower, because I view this selling as one of the last opportunities we are going to be presented with. I think that all the bad news from the Asian contagion, to the Russian fiasco, to the slow growth in the U.S. economy is already built into the market. All of these factors are getting overblown out of proportion. To me, what matters are three factors: (1) Interest rate; (2) Value of the U.S. Dollar and (3) Inflation. The 30-year long treasury bonds are at an all-time low in three decades, and heading lower. Commodity prices from metals to grains are practically collapsing which means inflation is non-existant, and the value of the U.S. dollar is making foreign imports much cheaper to buy (since the U.S. is a grossly importing market. All of these factors when put together should give good support to the overall market once the negative psychology subsides. Finally, I think all bear analysts are coming out as victorious lately, but let us NOT forget that most if not all of them have been licking their wounds for a good 3 years calling for a major decline while the DOW has been steadily rising. Time has taught all of us that there are good times for the bears, and there are better times for the bulls -- patience is a virtue. Good Luck. Mazen

To: Bob Swift who wrote (1097)	8/27/1998 8:14:00 PM
From: billy d	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10280

Bob, I agree that this type of fall was in the making. To be totally honest other then SEPR I have been shorting the market for the last 6 months and getting my head handed to me. I felt this was long overdue. The thing that makes me laugh was when the market was going balistic and everyone was making 30% a year just buying anything all I ever heard was "Its a global economy!" But now that these countries are falling one by one all of the bulls are saying that they don't matter! We don't need them to prosper. OK,which countries do we need? Is it Europe? Well then what about their exposure to Asia and Russia? Eventually we will feel it.Face it. Either its global or its not. As for SEPR, Its going to be tough to rally if the market continues to slide. It may outperform but that doesn't mean it will go up. This type of market will show us all who the real long termers are. Obviously, some of those who say they are were bailing today. One thing I do know is you can own a technically strong stock but if you are in a bear market no matter how strong that stock may be, your odds of making money are greatly decreased, no matter who the company is.