To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (14900 ) 8/27/1998 10:01:00 PM From: Glenn D. Rudolph Respond to of 164684
ANALYSIS - Economic woes spell trouble for big oil Reuters Story - August 27, 1998 20:29 %ENR %FR %US %GB %NL %CRU %PROD %RESF %CORA %LDC %EMRG %RU %LATAM ARC TX ELFP.PA XON RDS SHEL.L V%REUTER P%RTR By David Chance NEW YORK, Aug 27 (Reuters) - The world economy may be turning ugly and slower global growth spells bad news for major U.S. oil companies, which are already grappling with the lowest crude oil prices for 25 years as a result of oversupply. Asia's financial contagion has spread to Russia and concerns are now emerging that as growth slows in the United States, the world's largest oil importer, Latin America and Eastern Europe may also add to the gloom, squeezing big oil's profits from from all sides. Analysts have been steadily marking down their forecasts for the price of West Texas Intermediate crude since the start of the year, when 1998 estimates were a bullish $19.56 per barrel, according to First Call, which tracks forecasts. The average forecast for 1998 is now $15.53, and the WTI contract for October delivery was trading at $13.26 on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Thursday, among the lowest in a generation when stripping out inflation. "Oil prices are the wild card in next year's U.S. corporate earnings growth," said Charles Hill, director of research at First Call, which tracks company earnings. "What has hurt S&P500 earnings growth most in the first two quarters of 1998 has been declining oil prices resulting in weak oil company earnings," Hill said. Adam Sieminski, analyst at BT Alex Brown, said that on average a $1.00 drop in the price of oil per barrel equates to a seven percent drop in profits. Companies more exposed to fluctuations in oil prices are ARCO , whose stock fell 1-1/4 to 59-3/4 in afternoon trading, Texaco Inc. , down 1-4/16 at 57-15/16 and France's Elf Aquitaine , down 37 francs in Paris to 605 francs. Others such as Exxon Corp , the nation's biggest oil company which is more diversified, are less leveraged to the price of oil. Its stock lost just 3/16 to 70-3/16. If demand fails to keep pace with projections, and the Paris-based International Energy Agency is forecasting a 1.6 million barrel per day rise in global oil consumption to 76.3 million bpd in 1999, then oil prices will continue to slide. "I think it is very likely that there is a lot of risk in the (IEA) forecast and its is all on the downside. In the worst case scenario, all of that 1.6 million barrels gets wiped out," said respected oil analyst Philip Verleger. He said that assumptions for Asian demand growth in the IEA forecast are very optimistic as the Paris-based agency is looking for a rise in Asian consumption to 20.25 million bpd, from a projected 19.77 million this year. Eugene Nowak, analyst at ABN AMRO Inc., reduced his WTI price forecast for 1998 to $14.80 and 1999 to $16.75. He says that while Latin America has been a bright spot in global oil demand growth, it is just 4.5-4.6 million barrels per day out of total world demand of around 75 million barrels per day this year. "Obviously at a time like this, any abatement in demand growth is bad for the oil price, considering what is going on elsewhere," Nowak said. The majors with the biggest exposure to Latin America are Exxon, Texaco and Royal Dutch/Shell Group , and all cited stronger overseas demand as one of the factors behind a better-than-expected performance for their refining and marketing operations in the second quarter. The picture in the U.S. is also worrying for the majors as "the best of all possible economies" starts to slow, which may pinch demand in the world's biggest importer. According to 32 economists surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, U.S. gross domestic product should grow 3.4 percent in 1998 and 2.3 percent in 1999 after 3.9 percent in 1997. This comes at a time when the country's crude oil stocks are 30 million barrels per day above year ago levels at 339.57 million barrels, and gasoline inventories remain strong at 211.04 million barrels, the highest level for five years, according to industry data. BT Alex Brown's Sieminski says that global economic growth forecasts have been revised down to about two percent this year, down from an average annual rate of 3.5-4.0 percent in 1992-97. He says that an additional 0.5 percentage point could be knocked off the 1998 forecast and says that each 0.5 percentage point of growth equates to a 350,000 barrel per day cut in global oil demand. "You are going to lose demand, but you will probably also lose supply. Prices will not collapse, but you just do not get the recovery," Sieminski said.