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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ibexx who wrote (16416)	8/27/1998 8:41:00 PM
From: JimNewby	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Question for anyone: Any rumors of a split in near term? TIA, Jim

To: Ibexx who wrote (16416)	8/27/1998 8:53:00 PM
From: mauser96	Respond to of 77400

Ibexx...I suspect that some of the selling today was done by highly leveraged hedge funds with stock and/or bond holdings in the Russian market. Since that market is for all practical purposes vanished (along with a lot of US taxpayer dollars) the fund managers were forced to sell US holdings to meet their margin. If that is the case, their selling pressure should abate soon, because the Russian markets can't go lower than zero. I do some trades with a brokerage house that deals mainly with institutions and large accounts and he told me around 1PM central time that they were getting more buys than sales. Despite brokerage house's statements that the individual investor is showing no sign of panic, I have my doubts. I would agree that the down risk isn't much more than another 10 or 12 %. The turmoil overseas will drive funds into the US -in fact it probably happened today, it just went into bonds rather than stocks. With the low yields in the bond market, the money won't stay there long. Some of this deflation will seep into this country, so I suspect the next move of the fed will be down. Thanks for the input. regards

To: Ibexx who wrote (16416)	8/28/1998 2:10:00 AM
From: jach	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

time to get out from csco; 30%+ margin will be extremely hard to maintain- reasons: 1. insider sales of significant amout recently 2. LU and NT with 10% margin will give strong competition 3. Glut of GBit switches/Layer 3 switch routers from all these startups are coming to mkt now; they all need to sell; see what happened to the low end ethernet switch mkt; one can buy a switch for 50$ at COmpUSA or FRYs; at this rate of competeition and chip technology standardization high-end boxes will come down to the 500$ to 1000$ level within a yr; pretty tough to have 30% net margin on a 500$ box 4. Efficiency of Web commerce now being duplicated by others 5. past history has nothing to do with future; being up for last 5 yrs do not necessarily mean that it will go up for the next 5 yrs 6. As many have deep profits already in, when csco starts the downturn many will bail out, and it will be much more severe than the mkt trend; imo, sudden drop of 5,10 to 20$ is possible Message 5577735