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To: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9 who wrote (50959)	8/27/1998 9:09:00 PM
From: vegetarian	Respond to of 58727

>>reading the pain of a small loss at the beginning, were now about to suffer total amputation - without anesthetics. A day I shall never forget,<< Now that we have experience with securing windows and doors in preparation for hurricanes, should the govt secure the windows and doors of stock-brokers and mutual fund managers in preparation for the future market conditions? ;-)

To: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9 who wrote (50959)	8/27/1998 10:49:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58727

INDEX UPDATE --------------------------- Although, I am of course happy with my PUT position, I am getting very nervous about this market. What I fear is a true bear market, one of those that just lingers at the bottom, wherever that is, for months or even years, and neither BULL or BEAR makes money. We are not there yet, but it is getting quite ugly. Many of the indexes are already at CLASS BUY status, like the NAZ COMP, XAL, SOX, OSX, EGI, RUT, TRAN, BKX, but surprising the SPX, DOW, OEX, NDX, MSH, XCI are only in the lower mid-range, with a reading of approximately 25-40 for those indexes. For sake of reference concerning my short-term technicals, a CLASS 1 BUY has a reading below 5, and oversold region is 20 and below. WE ARE STILL AT THE 20-35 RANGE FOR THOSE INDEXES - THAT AINT GOOD!!!!. My more accurate data is updated tomorrow morning but I already compensated for that. Just on a purely a mathematical calcualtion, a reading of 20-35 implies that there could be up to 3 more down days, but closer to 2 more days, to become a CLASS BUY. In terms of points, if the DOW was to get to CLASS BUY status tomorrow, not later than tomorrow, it would have to drop 200-300 more points. If the drop is less than, of course it could take longer than 1 day. This analysis was mathematical to determine feasible downside, and did not consider support lines, moving averages, trendlines, etc. Of course, the market can turn before getting to CLASS BUY status, just trying to determine maximum probable downside for this specific short-term downswing. I am now noticing that some BUY SIGNALs are starting to fail, or lose accuracy. I would suggest to stick to the basics of HIGHER HIGHS & HIGHER LOWS=UPTREND, LOWER HIGHS & LOWER LOWS=DOWNTREND. Unless we can break 8750 to the upside, the DOW will still be in a short-to-midterm downtrend. Even a break of 8750 to the upside would not be conclusive, but at least it would be a strong positive for the market. Since we broke two very important support lines at 8317 and 8200, the next support is at 8050, and then 7785. I may exit my PUT position at/near 8050. Do not feel any rebound will be much, maybe in the 150-300 range. I am still seeing SEPT 3 as the beginning of the next down leg, which could be very negative. Just checked the futures and they are up slightly but do not know where fair value is. Seeya