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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (25411)	8/27/1998 11:55:00 PM
From: jef saunders	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

bobby, thanks for the wave count! i agree... except i don't think wave 3 completed today, i think it still has the opening tomorrow. wave 5 of 3 didn't start until just after 3pm, so i think it has half an hour or so left. so do you just hold puts through wave 4 and into wave 5, or do you try to sell the puts and buy them back at the top of wave 4? thx, jef

To: bobby beara who wrote (25411)	8/28/1998 1:42:00 AM
From: Gary R. Owens	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

Not the end of the bull market! First of all, I want to make it clear that this is NOT the end of the bull market! Second, you haven't lost any money until you sell. If you are in it for the long run, I'm confident that most stocks will rebound from their current price levels during the next few years. Furthermore, today marked the beginning of investor panic selling. I expect that we'll see more of this over this kind of action over the next week or so. from stocksite.com Now I'm reassured. - NOT! 'Harry Dent in the Head' - I love it, but you should be gentler, you know Hank Spherically Challenged Cranium or such. gary

To: bobby beara who wrote (25411)	8/28/1998 5:45:00 AM
From: Philipp	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

I just heard an analyst on Bloomberg saying the correction is over and that a "nice" bottom has formed. I haven't heard of a "free-fall" bottom yet. Also Briefing sees the end of the corrective phase. Do they really believe this or are they just being paid to say this? What drama yesterday around 3.20pm, SPX cash hardly moving at a critical support level (1056-1058), while the future's premium repeatedly sloshed back and forth between -200 and +400 on a time scale of a minute. The crash protection team lost that one. We now have a perfect crash scenario. 1. Clear, unambiguous crash signal in the SPX (and probably other major indices). 2. A triggering event: Russia after all with a good admixture of other factors in the background (Asia in particular). 3. Gloom and doom spreading quickly. And it will become much worse after today's action over the weekend. Japan, Hong Kong are still keeping up remarkably well, but I doubt that the governments will be able to keep the markets up artificially for much longer. Europe is close to capitulation already, and it has not really started yet. How low will it go? My preliminary guess is around 750 SPX by Tuesday. I am voting for a 3 1/2 day crash. Yesterday the set-up day, delivering the crash signal, today the first act (5 - 10 %, one trading halt?), gloom and doom over the weekend, the main act/panic on Monday (20 %?) and the final drop (another 5 - 10 %?) and rebound on Tuesday. But I won't be in a hurry to buy long-term even after that. This is probably just the first leg. Good trading or, to be on the safe side, have fun watching. Cheers, Phil P.S.: I read that the point levels for the 10/20/30 % trading halts are 850, 1750 and 2650 on the Dow.