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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Patrick E.McDaniel who wrote (61633)	8/27/1998 11:16:00 PM
From: Mohan Marette	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Tall order! WOW Pat: That is a tall order you got going there! I don't know I can correctly answer them but what the heck I'll give it a shot.Hope somebody more 'in-the-know' would post more detailed answer to your questions. 1)Russia- Insignificant business for Dell at this time. According to the recent Context report Russia was down anyway some 34% or so in PC sales for Q2-Not a big deal for Dell. Effect on U.S economy-Like the man from Putnam said,belive his name is Mr.Goodman, economically Russia is as significant to the U.S as a A SMALL SOUTH AMERICAN COUNTRY,assuming he is paid to know this sort of thing and assuming he is correct I would say the implication is - INSIGNIFICANT. 2)Europe. Very significant to the U.S and DELL. Economy in general still growing but more exposure in Russia than the U.S particularly the Germans has a lot of money invested there. I don't know how significant Russia is for Europe in general. The largest and major PC market in Europe are the U.K,Germany and France followed by Italy and others, but the most growth in % comes from Scandinavia. Any significant downturn in Europe will affect DELL,but so far no evidence of this from available data but we need to watch this region very closely. 3.Asia Contracting economies in S.E Asia,Japan-structural problems with hardly any growth. Chia-Still growing at least 5-6% a year but the flood would put some damper on the country temporarily as it is estimated to cost them approx. 25-30 billion dollars.Also oil production is affected,but still a growing economy no contraction expected.Worst hit countries in SEA is Indonesia,Malaysia and Possibly Thailand and S.Korea- Singapore,Taiwan,HKG,The Philippines probably will fair better but they are already over year into the crisis and according to some experts their troubles should bottom out in about 6 months or so and then a slow recovery is expected. China- Dell's primary focus initially will be to sell PCs to the Multinational Companies in the Chinese market and many of them are export oriented manufacturers and I would imagine less immune to domestic problems if there is any now or in the future. China is not expected to devalue the Yuan for another 6-8 months by then SE Asian crisis should have bottomed out and and the SE Asian markets should be able to absorb this event without much pain. Since Dell still only has some 6% of the Asian market and considering they have been growing business above 30% is a good indication as to how well Dell will weather any further trouble in the region. 4.Central/South America- I don't think Brazil plant will be in full production for another 6- 2 months.Since data is sketchy at this time for the region it hard to predict the impact at this time,however Brazil,Argentina and Chile should be the countries to watch for but I would think business in S.C.America is all that significant at this time. Since these markets are important for the growth of the company any severe and prolonged economic turmoil in the region should affect Dell in the long run,perhaps not in a big way but nonetheless. 5.Americas. The most important region for Dell- No need to go into it since most of us are here and we should know what happens in the event of a contraction in the economy. But as of today we have no evidence to show the economy is not growing or going into a contraction. What we have now is slow growth-(1 1/2 to 2% range)- Low inflation- Low interest rates- Full employment (economically speaking)- I say BULL. PS:do note these are not a well thought out opinions but just some random thoughts (based on what I have read) so please take it for what it is worth as you know I could be completely wrong.