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Technology Stocks : Cabletron Systems (CS: NYSE) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Richard V Davis who wrote (4857)8/27/1998 10:55:00 PM
From: Michael Hwang  Respond to of 8358
 
So is anybody buying?

I am at least some. Bought some CS today at 7 1/2. Spectrum has to be at least worth that.

Other issues

MTSI - 12ish - Expected to earn at least 1.20 moderate exposure to Asia mostly Japan. Has not missed esitmates by more than a couple of pennies each Q (and exceeded an equal no)

EVI - 16. Oil services. Down 50% in last 2 mos. Made 1.81 last yr. Yes I know falling knife. But I still use oil, and there's a helluva lotta SUV's out there.

SYMC - Software - Been in free fall last few trding sessions. But very volatile and lots of brokerage support.

PLAT - Another software. Avoided recent downturn until an aquisition. But still looking to hav at least a couple of great Qs.

ACP - Real Estate (owned by Carl Icahn) Dormant and mostly immune to fall until last few trading days. Book of 18+ (mostly real estate) trading at 9 and change.

RN - Tobacco - held up relatively well. Just added to SP500. Still yields 9%. Has Russian exposure, but the cancer sticks are the last to go when in stress.

Too many other speculative issues to name

Hey look over the long term its ALWAYS EARNINGS and INTEREST RATES.

Interest rates are a no contest. Earnings well...

I'm wading in and hoping for the best, but I've got no margin and will hold all purchases until signs of recession.

Wish everyone well in their investments.

Michael Hwang



To: Richard V Davis who wrote (4857)8/28/1998 4:58:00 AM
From: BMcV  Respond to of 8358
 
Hi Richard

Your information corresponds to that from Skippy, who says production in Rochester is in high gear, running 7 days a week, etc.

That this effort has to do with the SSR as you say is also verified by Larry J's post about high volume purchases of LEVL devices that go into the Yago switch.

Two caveats however also come from those posts. Skippy said a lot of the work is going into fixing defective boxes that come off the line. And Larry J pointed out that the growth in SSR is from a zero base line, and may not offset declines in other product offerings.

My feeling which is strictly a guess is that the product transition is behind CS and most of the growth in the SSR will add to revenues, rather than just match declines in other areas. The reason I think this is that the shared hub segment has fallen to such a small percentage of total revenues and as of last quarter, other lines were growing well. Will this lead to an upside earnings surprise? It could, if extraordinary expenses from the production troubles don't cut too much into margins. But I don't think we need an earnings surprise to help the stock in here -- just an improving revenue picture should be all we need.

One thing's for sure -- at these prices, just little good news will go a long long way.






To: Richard V Davis who wrote (4857)8/28/1998 6:56:00 AM
From: ChinuSFO  Respond to of 8358
 
<<I am debating buying the stock or the sept/oct 7.5 calls.>>

Consider buying the January 10s . . . trading at about 3/4s. They extra time will serve you well.

JMHO,

CR



To: Richard V Davis who wrote (4857)8/28/1998 8:33:00 AM
From: Doug  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 8358
 
R.V.D: Your question is an indication of the skepticism out on the street regarding CS.

On the one hand you personally know that production is at peak and morale is high. The street in general has no knowledge of that.

It would seem that either you have little confidence in that info or else you are unsure of its value.

Either case, it is obvious that CS has unfortunately made a lot of investors nervous..