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To: Richard Habib who wrote (17361)8/28/1998 2:34:00 AM
From: Marc Newman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 213173
 
Rich, don't you think the bonds and short-term interest rates (not to mention big cash positions and big money inflows) are going to lead to a big stock market rally? If not now, then when all the chief traders return from vacation after Labor Day?

I wonder if we focus on companies because that's something we can do better than trying to get our hands on the full macro picture.

But then again, there is a reason for the "M" in CANSLIM.

Marc



To: Richard Habib who wrote (17361)8/28/1998 9:12:00 AM
From: soup  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 213173
 
Russia ... Da.

>I have been following overseas markets and news quite closely including Russia - I didn't notice any posts on any of the boards about what was happening overseas last night. That's another reason to be bearish. The average tech investor based on posts in ridiculously unaware of situations ...<

I don't have as much influence overseas as I do here, but I'll see what I can do there as well. (Actually the Russian market is up 8% as I'm writing this.)

AAPL is down 7.x% on Japan and Frankfurt exchanges, mirroring the US.

Actually the most constructive comment I've heard about Russia on NightLine last night was that they may be retrenching from a free market model top a "New Deal" model. Including Communists in the government, appropriating major industries and taking better care of the general population.

Sounds like a plan to me.

>The reason I single you out is that from the tone of your posts I picture you as the quintessential bull. By that I mean you believe that if a company is good the stock should increase.<

If I've learned anything from the past few days, it's been what's Phil's been saying: "Buy what you believe in and hold on."

My efforts at diversification is did me little good yesterday. Domestic, foreign, small cap, emerging markets, REITS, biotech, AAPL were all down by comparable amounts. My efforts to insulate myself from investment risk did nothing, or worse, *increased* my exposure to market risk.

With AAPL, I have an edge over to general analysts re: product sales, marketing, understanding the technology. This knowledge is augmented by contributions of members on this board.

Also, unlike the money managers whose daily performance dictates their compensation, my timeframe is in years.

"Diversification is a poor substitute for knowledge."



To: Richard Habib who wrote (17361)8/28/1998 9:20:00 AM
From: Phillip C. Lee  Respond to of 213173
 
Rich, it'll bounce back a little for the overall market this morning
judging from pre-market situation. I think probably we will gain
back some losing territory from yesterday's. It seems that another volatile
day's ahead of us.

I admit that the overall market, even foreign markets, will affect
good stocks, but we have been in this kind of situation since last
year. US has been taking a lead in this situation and will continue.
In the current economic condition in US, we've got low unemployment
rate, booming housing market, low inflation/interest rates, progressively
improved GDP, leading technologies in varies fields, significant
volume in 401k from baby boomers, etc. Under this macro-economic
conditions, the stocks were not over-valued, particularly for AAPL.

Cheers,
Phil