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Technology Stocks : MRV Communications (MRVC) opinions? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr. Pink who wrote (10355)	8/28/1998 9:46:00 AM
From: Jake Heib	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42804

Mr. Pink, You may have been right, but for all of the wrong reasons. I guess being lucky is better than being good. Regards Bill

To: Mr. Pink who wrote (10355)	8/28/1998 10:05:00 AM
From: Len Roselli	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42804

Mr. Pink, << You fools should have listened to the Wisdom of Mr. Pink. >> I guess now we know what you think of us. I was going to give you some credit for calling the stock price, even though it fell for reasons other than what you've been alleging, but your last post changed my mind. Instead, I'm going to rate you as a seven-turd person with flies and maggots. len

To: Mr. Pink who wrote (10355)	8/28/1998 10:16:00 AM
From: Andy H	Respond to of 42804

A case study. As pointed out by a previous poster a few days ago, when a growth stock goes down for months in a bull market to a seemingly ridiculous PE ratio, there is almost always another shoe to drop. The trouble/risk factors with MRVC to me have always been the low gross margins and CSCO. To those who expect MRVC to get back on track in the future and get anywhere near the outstanding earnings estimates, please consider that MRVC may have just hit the wall and may not bounce back. The MRVC situation parallels LRCX, from a few years ago, into which I bought the same arguments (for a while). LRCX had had around 20some consecutive sequential earnings increases when the stock peaked in July 1995 at $73. In August 1995, October 1995, January 1996 and April 1996, LRCX reported four more sequential earnings increases even though the stock price hit the 30s in January 1996, after the CEO had bought 10,000 shares in late 1995 at $50 and stated on the January 1996 conference call that he didn't understand why the stock price was so low ($36 at the time) and that business looked great. LRCX at the time was matching AMAT in market share for its etching products. LRCX is now in the teens, after hitting the low 20s in July 1996, and over $60 briefly last summer. The point is not to compare LRCX and MRVC directly, but to note that companies facing the big industry gorilla, both AMAT and CSCO, despite insider buying, sequential earnings growth, do fall by the wayside in ways and time frames that cannot be predicted by those of us on the outside. CSCO has eaten up everyone-consider where BAY, COMS, and CS were a few years ago, compared to now-will COMS ever get back to the $80 of 20 months ago? A case could also be made that the MRVC business model in analogous to AMD, better and cheaper than the industry gorilla, but lower margin as well. Again, this post is not meant to start a discussion of why LRCX or AMD are or are not similar to MRVC, but just to give the people who still hold MRVC a different look at things. I've been there -holding a small tech stock wondering why it seemed such a bargain down to "ridiculous" levels. I do not have a position in MRVC, and haven't since April, due to lack of price momentum and particularly the persistently rising short interest to record levels despite a falling price.