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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (489)	8/28/1998 11:05:00 AM
From: Bill Ounce	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3536

inflation and deflation simultaneously? Currently in some Asian countries food prices have gone up, while luxury items have dropped. Is this seen as inflationary or deflationary?

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (489)	8/28/1998 9:19:00 PM
From: Investor-ex!	Respond to of 3536

Robert, In general, for the G-7, I anticipate first a general global deflation of 1 - 2 years, more or less, and then a massive inflationary intervention to counter the GDP-destroying effects of the deflation, resulting in a sort of world-wide stagflation. Several emerging markets are already approaching this state. The timing of the unfolding of this scenario will vary, country by country, depending upon an individual government's freedom to pursue monetary and fiscal adjustment without outside intervention, domestic political realities, budgetary considerations, gross debt levels, and internal social stability or lack thereof. IMO, some very difficult choices will be required.