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Technology Stocks : BEA Systems (BEAS) - Undiscovered Growth Stock -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: softcash who wrote (575)	8/28/1998 10:14:00 AM
From: treetopflier	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2477

Softcash, I'm sure Greenspan did ALL THIS just to reduce the value of your holdings in BEAS. Take this to a different thread. ttf

To: softcash who wrote (575)	8/28/1998 10:16:00 AM
From: growthvalue	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2477

Took you a long time and all you come up with is that convoluted mess? You conveniently glossed over or ignored every one of my arguments and instead give me a ridiculous litany of examples and links which do not add up to a coherent position. It also looks like you've given up your argument on Y2K. You still demonstrate that you don't understand what deflation is. Deflation is not lower prices in some items. It's a sustained decline in the GENERAL price level as measured by the CONSUMER PRICE INDEX. Not by GOLD or OIL or DRAM CHIPS. You also demonstrate an inability to understand the key points of an argument that were laid out quite clearly. Examples of items whose prices have declined does not in any way refute a single word I have said. The consumer price index as of June '98 was up 1.7%. This represents a FLATTENING to a slight INCREASE in the CPI growth, which previously had been decelerating (NO, the CPI has not DECLINED, it's GROWTH had been declining, but now its picking up again). It had been trending down but because the consumption and housing markets are so hot, the CPI has flattened. Inflation numbers are not declining - and this is DESPITE the lower price of fuel and anything that runs on fuel. You said: "BTW/ your numbers are small glitches in the real picture." What is that supposed to mean? The "real picture" of US inflation IS the CONSUMER PRICE INDEX. NOT THE PRICE OF GOLD OR OTHER COMMODITIES. You also convieniently ignore the fact that housing and conumer spending is more than 2/3 of the US GDP. The factors you point to are not NEARLY as significant a factor in the US economy as these, what you call, "small glitches." In addition, even though some large multinational corporations have a lot of international business, the US ECONOMY as A WHOLE does not depend significantly on commerce with Asia and ESPECIALLY not with Russia. 2/3 OF THE ECONOMY IS A LOT MORE OF THE "REAL PICTURE" THAN TRADE WITH ASIA AND RUSSIA. PLUS THE WEAKNESS IN ASIA TRADE IS OFFSET BY THE CHEAPER PRICES IN COMMODITIES WHICH BENEFITS OUR ECONOMY. Unemployment is at unprecedented low levels, employment costs are rising. This HARDLY points to a SLOWDOWN OR DEFLATION. Put another way, deflation is too little money chasing too few goods. THE MONEY SUPPLY IS GROWING > 7% - this implies LITTLE risk of DEFLATION. The inverted yield curve indicates that the market EXPECTS the US economy to slow down, which it very well may. BUT, it does not indicate that the US economy IS slowing down. It is NOT slowing down. Not yet. The data shows NO evidence of a slowdown in the US ECONOMY. Until that happens it would be INSANE to lower interest rates. If he cut the rates now, some of the stocks you are stubbornly clinging to would rise, but it would NOT be in the best interest of the US economy. Please don't respond with a list of prices that have declined.