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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (19149)	8/28/1998 11:59:00 AM
From: Bill Hermesmann	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25960

Considering Zeev's gloomy overall assessment and fatherly advice to someone a few days ago, "Will you bail out if the support at 14 3/4 is breached?", then his subsequent buy of the stock yesterday at 14 3/8, his turnips seems more seat of the pants than technical analysis. I don't know about Cymer, but the OEX put/call ratio has been giving clear bearish signals this week and this market will NEVER EVER rally for real while that group (OEX call buyers) is still trying to buy the bottom. The good news is that they will change tactics with dramatic suddeness, thus creating an authentic buy signal.

To: orkrious who wrote (19149)	8/28/1998 2:56:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 25960

Jay, are you sure you want to hear the next target? You promise there will be no lynching? <VBG>. After a rally to maybe the mid 16, if we are lucky, I see further deteriorating and rapid one taking place later in September and in October. This mostly because I think that we are going down possibly to 7200 or so. Under that kind of a scenario, twice book value and a PE of about 13 to 15 of next year earning, will still make CYMI one of the higher valuated stocks. That brings us down, however, to about $8 to $9. Very bleak, but when the PE are being shaved down in a bear market they shave all of them. So from what I expect to be a peak of about 16, I am afraid we can see a 50% decline. Zeev