To: Mohan Marette who wrote (61881 ) 8/28/1998 12:53:00 PM From: JRI Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
Mohan- Investors underestimated the impact of Asia & emerging markets earlier this year...now investors are overestimating it.....a return to the mean will occur soon...Markets are not perfectly effecient and they do not move in a straight line......which will mean a nice (albeit limited) rally for the Dow, Naz very soon... The changes that are going on now in Russia will not speed up the recovery of the overall Russian economy, but they will add political stability and build consensus for the current leadership...This is a good thing, and what is needed for calm in the world financial markets...Russia economy has been mostly black market and barter for years, so the snuffing out of the free-market really means little.........German banks, who are the hardest hit from this, reserved heavily for these (bad) loans, so this will have little impact on quarterly financials for them.... Latin America (save Venezuela) is in much better shape than in many years......They, especially Brazil, have been unfairly punished by this crisis....but structurally, they are in much better shape than in previous years......My bet is that they will hold their currencies (over the next few months), certainly after elections (Brazil and Venezuela)...Again, the impact to many U.S. companies, next to nothing... It is good to see the internet stocks being taken down.....it looks like almost everyone has been hit in the last few days.....Those "market technicians" who want to see capitulation, have seen quite a bit.... With Dell, all this is noise....When the clouds pass, Dell will continue its upward move.... Yeltsin on TV now...Not making sense.....is sad.....